SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14September 30
Open$18Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 82% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES82¢
NO18¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Starship is expected to conduct its 14th test flight as early as the end of this month, marking its first attempt at land-based recovery of the upper-level spacecraft.
Where does the news lean?
2YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
What would make this resolve YES?
If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Related markets
See all outcomes for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.