SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14September 26
Open$4Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 79% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES79¢
NO22¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
SpaceX targets first Starship orbital test on September 22
SpaceX is currently targeting Starship Flight 14 for September 22 • • And this flight is a huge step beyond everything Starship has done so far • • Flight 14 will attempt to: • • • Reach stable Low Earth Orbit for the first time • • Deploy production Starlink V3 satellites into orbit • • Become Starship’s first revenue-generating mission • • Attempt the full orbital mission profile from launch → deployment → deorbit → reentry • • Push the V3 heat shield through another major test • • Continue proving Raptor 3, guidance, landing burns and vehicle control needed for rapid reuse • • The hardware: • • • Super Heavy Booster 21 • • Starship Ship 41 • • Third flight of the Starship V3 architecture • • 33 Raptor 3 engines on Super Heavy • • 6 Raptor engines on Starship • • Launching from Pad 2 at Starbase • • After liftoff, Super Heavy will separate from Starship, perform its boostback and return for a controlled ocean splashdown • • No tower catch is planned for Flight 14 • • The really big part happens with Ship 41 • • Instead of following another suborbital trajectory, Starship will continue into orbit • • Then it will deploy production Starlink V3 satellites into stable LEO • • That is a massive milestone by itself • • Flight 13 proved Starship could deploy V3 satellites in space....Flight 14 is the first time Starship is expected to actually leave production V3 satellites in orbit • • And these satellites are monsters • • Each Starlink V3 is designed for: • • • 1 Tbps of downlink capacity • • 160 Gbps of uplink capacity • • 2,048 beams in each direction • • Six 400 Gbps laser links • • Eventually a single Starship will be able to carry up to 60 V3 satellites....adding around 60 Tbps of Starlink capacity in ONE launch • • Around 20× the downlink capacity deployed by a Falcon 9 Starlink launch • • After payload deployment, Ship 41 will perform its deorbit sequence and come back through the atmosphere • • That means another major test of: • • • The orbital heat shield • • Flap control through reentry • • Guidance during the return • • Raptor relight • • Landing flip and burn • • Ship 41 will then return for a controlled ocean splashdown • • And the next step is already lined up....Elon has confirmed Flight 15 is planned for the first attempt to bring Starship all the way back to the tower and catch it • • But Flight 14 comes first • • Reach orbit....Deploy real Starlink V3 satellites.....Come back through reentry • • This is where things start getting very real
SpaceX will try to put Starship in orbit for the first time on September 22
YESReuters97%match
SpaceX: Starship Flight 14 Preparing to Launch as Soon as Sept 22, Pending Regulatory Approval; 75-Minute Launch Window Will Open at 7:15 Am CT
Starship is preparing to go to orbit. Flight 14 is targeting to launch as early as Tuesday, September 22, pending regulatory approval →
Where does the news lean?
5YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans YES at 71% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
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