SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14Chopsticks catch Starship?

ResolvedOutcome: NoVol$478KResolvedas of

Odds now

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

NOelonmusk96%match97¢+3%
SpaceX is currently targeting Starship Flight 14 for September 22 • • And this flight is a huge step beyond everything Starship has done so far • • Flight 14 will attempt to: • • • Reach stable Low Earth Orbit for the first time • • Deploy production Starlink V3 satellites into orbit • • Become Starship’s first revenue-generating mission • • Attempt the full orbital mission profile from launch → deployment → deorbit → reentry • • Push the V3 heat shield through another major test • • Continue proving Raptor 3, guidance, landing burns and vehicle control needed for rapid reuse • • The hardware: • • • Super Heavy Booster 21 • • Starship Ship 41 • • Third flight of the Starship V3 architecture • • 33 Raptor 3 engines on Super Heavy • • 6 Raptor engines on Starship • • Launching from Pad 2 at Starbase • • After liftoff, Super Heavy will separate from Starship, perform its boostback and return for a controlled ocean splashdown • • No tower catch is planned for Flight 14 • • The really big part happens with Ship 41 • • Instead of following another suborbital trajectory, Starship will continue into orbit • • Then it will deploy production Starlink V3 satellites into stable LEO • • That is a massive milestone by itself • • Flight 13 proved Starship could deploy V3 satellites in space....Flight 14 is the first time Starship is expected to actually leave production V3 satellites in orbit • • And these satellites are monsters • • Each Starlink V3 is designed for: • • • 1 Tbps of downlink capacity • • 160 Gbps of uplink capacity • • 2,048 beams in each direction • • Six 400 Gbps laser links • • Eventually a single Starship will be able to carry up to 60 V3 satellites....adding around 60 Tbps of Starlink capacity in ONE launch • • Around 20× the downlink capacity deployed by a Falcon 9 Starlink launch • • After payload deployment, Ship 41 will perform its deorbit sequence and come back through the atmosphere • • That means another major test of: • • • The orbital heat shield • • Flap control through reentry • • Guidance during the return • • Raptor relight • • Landing flip and burn • • Ship 41 will then return for a controlled ocean splashdown • • And the next step is already lined up....Elon has confirmed Flight 15 is planned for the first attempt to bring Starship all the way back to the tower and catch it • • But Flight 14 comes first • • Reach orbit....Deploy real Starlink V3 satellites.....Come back through reentry • • This is where things start getting very real
YESmoney.udn.com93%match47¢-100%
Starship is expected to conduct its 14th test flight as early as the end of this month, marking its first attempt at land-based recovery of the upper-level spacecraft.

Where does the news lean?

1YES1NO1neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.

How did this market resolve?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Starship upper stage for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower’s chopsticks, this market will resolve to “No.” A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. This market pertains to the 14th Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the 14th Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the 14th launch, and this market will stay open until the 14th launch has occurred. If the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Related markets

See all outcomes for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.