Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?SpaceX
Open$837Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 38% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES38¢
NO63¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
ANTHROPIC ODDS FOR LARGEST 2026 IPO CLIMB TO 44% ON POLYMARKET • • SpaceX: 56% • Anthropic: 44% • • SpaceX held above 80% for most of the past month before the gap narrowed sharply over the last week. Total volume is $5.43M. • • The benchmark to beat is set: SpaceX $SPCX priced at $135 on June 11 and closed its Nasdaq debut at $160.95 on June 12, valuing it around $2.1T. A separate contract puts the odds of an Anthropic IPO by October 31 at 74% as of last week. Anthropic is privately held.
$SPCX - HARVARD BETS $2.2B ON SPACEX • • Harvard Management disclosed a $2.2B stake in SpaceX (SPCX), making it over 50% of its $4.26B disclosed U.S. equity portfolio. • • The position includes roughly 12.94M shares, making SpaceX Harvard’s largest reported U.S. holding. • • Other major institutional holders include Intesa Sanpaolo (~$966M) and the University of California (~$1B). • • SpaceX shares remain above their $135 IPO price, valuing the company near $1.85T.
Anthropic investors eye $2T IPO valuation after SpaceX’s record debut: Report
Public markets are reopening, but selectively. • • The U.S. recorded 95 IPOs in Q2 2026, raising ~$125B. Globally, 331 IPOs raised ~$154B. • • SpaceX heavily influenced those totals, but that’s part of the story: capital is concentrating around large companies tied to long-term themes like AI and digital infrastructure.
SpaceX shares rose nearly 3% on Thursday as Wall Street absorbed the lifting of the lock-up on up to 911.5 million shares, worth approximately $100 billion. #Arabic_Business
Global IPO fundraising surges 206%! SpaceX sets record for largest IPO ever.
Everyone is waiting for IPOs, but history tells us: Beware of excessive enthusiasm. SpaceX went public with a valuation exceeding $2 trillion, then hundreds of billions of dollars in value evaporated despite better-than-expected results. Founders, employees, and venture capitalists reap most of the profits before the stock even hits the market, while the average investor gets in last and at a higher price. Data spanning more than forty years shows that IPOs underperform the overall market during their first three years. Is buying one just a lottery ticket? #Arabic_Business
On Tuesday, Musk outlined ambitious goals for SpaceX, including sending a data center into space by 2027 and achieving $1 trillion in revenue by 2030. SpaceX's first earnings report since its IPO showed significant increases in both revenue and capital expenditures.
Bitcoin and ether markets are ruled by perps. SpaceX showed how far their influence can go. • Perpetual futures drive much of the price discovery for bitcoin and ether. When traders pointed the same machinery at a private company, they priced the biggest IPO in history more accurately than Wall Street, and then watched the stock walk away from them.
Space travel: SpaceX with one of the worst stock market debuts in decades
After SpaceX’s $2 trillion debut, investors are eyeing Anthropic and OpenAI. Market experts share how to play the next trillion-dollar IPO
SpaceX's sagging stock 'dampens the mood' for blockbuster IPOs
A trillion dollars evaporated from Elon Musk's SpaceX... Why did SpaceX stock plummet despite its massive, historic IPO on its first day?
The SpaceX IPO pop...
Shooting For The Stars: What The SpaceX IPO Means For Investors. • The SpaceX IPO will likely be remembered as one of the defining market events of this era.
U.S. IPO BOOM HITS RECORD • • U.S. IPOs and share sales reached a record $251 billion in the first half of 2026, led by SpaceX's record-breaking listing. • • Bankers expect a strong pipeline of AI-driven deals in Q3, with major IPOs, including Anthropic, potentially still to come.
SpaceX’s $25 billion foray into debt markets appeared to be well received by bond markets last week, with huge demand for the offering. • • But one of the biggest-ever AI bond issuances, less than two weeks after SpaceX’s IPO, has highlighted the group’s intense financing needs, capital spending plans and future refinancing obligations — and posed a diversification challenge for investors. • • Read more:
SPACEX $SPCX FALLS ~10%, THIRD STRAIGHT DOWN DAY • • The stock is on pace for a third consecutive trading day of losses after an initial post-IPO rally, per CNBC. SpaceX priced its June 12 IPO at $135 and briefly pushed its market cap past Amazon and Microsoft after listing, before sliding 5% Wednesday and 3.6% Thursday. As of Thursday's close it was still up 37% from the debut. • • Separately on Monday, SpaceX announced a senior unsecured notes offering and disclosed $100.8B in cash and equivalents as of June 19.
Wall Street is licking its chops over an unprecedented slate of massive IPOs set to arrive in the coming months, beginning with Elon Musk's SpaceX in June.
"A huge step"... SpaceX raises $75 billion in IPO with a valuation of up to $2 trillion Report by: Ali Al-Rawashdeh
Where does the news lean?
66YES14NO28neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
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