Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?Kraken
Open$657Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Kraken Confirms Confidential U.S. IPO Filing After Earlier Pause; Deutsche Börse to Invest $200M • • According to CNBC, Kraken co-CEO Arjun Sethi said the company has confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO, confirming earlier reports. The exchange previously submitted a draft S-1 in November 2025 without setting a timeline and had earlier paused its IPO plans amid a market downturn. Separately, Deutsche Börse Group is set to invest $200 million for an approximately 1.5% stake.
Kraken parent company Payward has paused its IPO plans. Payward confidentially filed its IPO application with the U.S. SEC last November, but has recently suspended the listing process due to weakened crypto market conditions following Bitcoin's record high, which has put pressure on valuations and reduced trading volumes. The company will only restart when market conditions improve.
NONews99%match99¢+1%
*KRAKEN FREEZES IPO PLANS UNTIL MARKET IMPROVES: COINDESK
Crypto exchange Kraken freezes multibillion-dollar IPO plan due to difficult market conditions
Where does the news lean?
2YES3NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
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