Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?Shabana Mahmood
ResolvedOutcome: No$826Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Former Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham will become the new Prime Minister of Great Britain; he has been elected the new leader of the Labour Party. Burnham will replace Keir Starmer. This was announced by the head of the party’s executive committee, Shabana Mahmood. Since Labour retains a parliamentary majority and is in power, the election of a new leader automatically means his appointment as head of government. The change of leader on Downing Street is scheduled for July 20. What the future Prime Minister of Great Britain is known for – read the article on our website. Reuters Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS app | Android [in reply to: Keir Starmer will continue to serve as head of government until a new Labour leader is elected. According to The Telegraph and The Guardian, the most favorable scenario for a significant part of the party is the appointment of former Greater Manchester Mayor Andrew Burnham by the parliamentary faction without a competitive election. On June 19, he won a convincing victory in the House of Commons by-election for the Makerfield constituency (also in Manchester), beating the Reform UK candidate with 55% of the vote. According to YouGov, Burnham remains the most popular Labour member in the UK. Burnham's main task at the party level is to consolidate its far-left and moderate factions, says Sergey Shein, a research fellow at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. He also notes that Burnham's image as a pragmatic politician is unlikely to significantly impact London's current international course. For more details, see Vedomosti's article. Reuters Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android]
Live: There are a few procedural bits to take care of before Burnham speaks today. Lucy Powell, the deputy leader of the Labour Party, and Hollie Ridley, the general secretary, will deliver some remarks before Shabana Mahmood, the current home secretary and the head of the party’s National Executive Committee, will announce the results of the non-contested race for party leader. The winner, of course, will be Burnham, who will speak after that.
Shabana Mahmood set to be named UK chancellor by Andy Burnham
As per @Steven_Swinford, I’ve also been told Shabana Mahmood has been into see the PM today. Meanwhile No 10 team - and I hear David Lammy been helping - have been calling around ministers trying to get support for PM. But as it stands tonight that hasn’t been very forthcoming
EXC Angela Rayner allies say the price of her returning to Cabinet would be sacking Shabana Mahmood • •
YESVisegrád 2499%match6¢-100%
As pressure mounts for Keir Starmer to resign, it is looking more and more likely that British Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood could become the first Muslim Prime Minister.
Where does the news lean?
3YES10NO5neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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