Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?Angela Rayner
ResolvedOutcome: No$968Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
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16 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Sometimes I am a bit thick. Often maybe. But I had not quite realised that Angela Rayner’s statement that the PM should allow Andy Burnham back into parliament was not a statement about Labour Party democracy. It was Rayner saying she would back Burnham as and when he runs to be Labour leader. • • Or so I am reliably told, to coin the cliché. • • In other words, she would not be a candidate in a leadership contest that included Burnham as a candidate. • • That has been said to me explicitly, and feels important. • • So does that mean she has abandoned all ambitions to be prime minister? • • Not quite. • • Her view is that there must be a soft-left dog in any leadership race. And if that race was triggered by Wes Streeting today or in coming days, while Burnham is still outside the Commons, she would feel it was her duty to be a contestant - unless, that is, another soft-left MP, such as Ed Miliband, were to go for it. • • In a nutshell, she seems to have decided her preferred role is to be the maker of the king or queen, not the monarch herself. Unless duty calls.
Sometimes I am a bit thick. Often maybe. But I had not quite realised that Angela Rayner’s statement that the PM should allow Andy Burnham back into parliament was not a statement about Labour Party democracy. It was Rayner saying she would back Burnham as and when he runs to be Labour leader. • • Or so I am reliably told, to coin the cliché. • • In other words, she would not be a candidate in a leadership contest that included Burnham as a candidate. • • That has been said to me explicitly, and feels important. • • So does that mean she has abandoned all ambitions to be prime minister? • • Not quite. • • Her view is that there must be a soft-left dog in any leadership race. And if that race was triggered by Wes Streeting today or in coming days, while Burnham is still outside the Commons, she would feel it was her duty to be a contestant - unless, that is, another soft-left MP, such as Ed Miliband, were to go for it. • • In a nutshell, she seems to have decided her preferred role is to be the maker of the king or queen, not the monarch herself. Unless duty calls.
Angela Rayner calls for Andy Burnham’s return as she accuses Starmer of ‘crony culture’
Angela Rayner says UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer must act fast to deliver change as this could be Labour's "last chance"
In full: Angela Rayner's statement after devastating Labour election results
Angela Rayner calls for Burnham’s return as she accuses Starmer of ‘crony culture’
During the local election campaign MPs have also complained that a negative view of Angela Rayner has been coming up with voters on the doorstep and would deter Labour’s grassroots from backing her in the event of a contest.
EXC: Andy Burnham’s allies want a new Granita pact with Angela Rayner. • • Two Labour sources said they discussed it at their recent meeting at Rayner’s constituency home. Friends say it would be “very useful” to avoid a split on the soft Left in a leadership contest.
EXCL: Angela Rayner & Andy Burnham held a secret summit on Friday evening - just as Keir Starmer battled to cling on to his premiership. • • Revelation will fuel rumours they are hatching a plot & the PM could face a leadership challenge • • w/ @SophiaSleigh • •
Excl: Angela Rayner will back the government on controversial reforms to special educational needs as the former deputy prime minister seeks to put on a united front with Sir Keir Starmer before the local elections. • •
Angela Rayner’s allies warn of Hollande-style wipeout for Labour
Exclusive: • • Angela Rayner is contesting claims that she failed to pay enough stamp duty on the purchase of her £800,000 flat in Hove, East Sussex • • The former deputy prime minister and housing secretary quit in September last year after independent legal advice found she had not paid enough tax • • She had initially denied any wrongdoing when reports surfaced that she had bought a flat on the south coast in May of last year • • She declared it as her primary residence instead of her second home, allowing her to pay a lower levy of £30,000 instead of £70,000 • • However, independent legal advice paid for by Labour at the time concluded that she should have paid the higher rate. This was because she had sold her 25 per cent stake in the family home in Greater Manchester to a trust for her disabled son but was still classed as retaining an interest in it • • Rayner said in her resignation letter that it was “likely” that she had “inadvertently” paid the incorrect amount of stamp duty and referred herself to HM Revenue & Customs • • The Times has been told that she has subsequently taken new legal advice which argues that she did not need to pay the higher rate of stamp duty. The new advice has been submitted to HMRC. It is understood to highlight “complexities” surrounding the trust • • Rayner will accept the outcome of HMRC’s investigation and pay any fine that is due. The Times recently disclosed that she has raised more than £100,000 from speaking engagements and an advance on her forthcoming memoirs, more than enough to cover the cost of any unpaid stamp duty or potential fine. • • Dan Neidle, a tax expert, said: “It seems she didn’t realise that having the Hove property held by a trust with her son as beneficiary made it her second home for stamp-duty purposes. If that’s the case, it’s super-simple: she has to pay the tax. Her lawyers said she should take tax advice and she didn’t. That is likely to mean penalties are due.” • •
How Angela Rayner battled No 10 and blamed Starmer’s aides for downfall
YESPolymarket99%match22¢-100%
[Replying to @visegrad24] @visegrad24 Next UK Prime Minister: Angela Rayner - 21% Wes Steeting - 17% Ed Milband - 9% Shabana Mahmood - 1% > Shabana Mahmood could become the next and first Muslim prime minister of the UK if Keir Starmer is to resign.
YESThe Economist98%match23¢-100%
In a head-to-head leadership contest against a working-class hero such as Angela Rayner, Sir Keir Starmer would surely be toast
YESThe Economist99%match23¢-100%
Angela Rayner, a former deputy prime minister who grew up in poverty, is the betting market’s current favourite. Yet she is not entirely squeaky clean herself Photo: Getty Images
Where does the news lean?
17YES16NO10neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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