Next leader out of power before 2027?Takaichi - Japan PM
Open$26Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES1¢
NO99¢
±0 ptsas of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi returns to Japan after the Japan-U.S. summit meeting, preparing for the extraordinary Diet session to be convened in October.
The reshuffled Takaichi cabinet has officially begun operations; appointments of Vice Ministers and Parliamentary Secretaries, including Eriko Imai, have been decided for the Cabinet Office; Prime Minister Takaichi will hold a Japan-U.S. summit meeting on the 22nd.
Takaichi Carries Out First Cabinet Reshuffle... Aims for Re-election Next Year by Blocking Rivals and Consolidating Forces
Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi's new cabinet will take office, with many key cabinet members expected to remain in their positions.
Prime Minister Takaichi to reshuffle her cabinet on the 17th; Ishin Party to join, maintaining the core of the administration Key cabinet members such as Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara Minoru and Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki are expected to remain in their positions. Nakatsuji Hiroshi, who was the secretary-general of the Japan Innovation Party, is expected to be newly appointed as a cabinet member.
Prime Minister Takaichi secures party leadership appointments, virtually retaining top executives; likely aiming for government stability.
Where does the news lean?
1YES25NO8neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 92%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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