Next leader out of power before 2027?Erdoğan - Türkiye President
Open$30Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES1¢
NO99¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
A top adviser to Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the Turkish leader would run again in an early election likely to be held in April 2028, media outlets reported on Thursday. •
The chairman of the Turkish presidential legal council, Mehmet Ocum, said he expects the elections to be held on April 16, 2028. Ocum added that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will run for the last time @itamargalit
Where does the news lean?
0YES8NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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