OpenAI’s Astra releasedOctober 31

OpenVol$36KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 92% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES92¢
NO9¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NOalhadath94%match10¢-20%
Concerns are growing that AI capabilities could spiral out of control. OpenAI is slowing development of its Astra model after tests revealed cybersecurity advancements that could allow it to discover vulnerabilities and launch attacks more autonomously without human intervention.
NOdecrypt.co95%match12¢-33%
OpenAI Says Its Next AI Model Astra May Be Too Dangerous, Pauses Development
NOcrowdfundinsider.com97%match11¢-27%
OpenAI Pauses Development of Astra Model Amid Possible Critical Cybersecurity Risks. • OpenAI has announced a deliberate slowdown in aspects of its work on Astra, an advanced AI system still under development, after recent internal assessments raised the possibility that the model could possess high-level cybersecurity abilities. The company stated that evaluations conducted over several days revealed... Read More

Where does the news lean?

0YES15NO1neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.

What would make this resolve YES?

On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting. Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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