OpenAI’s Astra releasedAugust 15
ResolvedOutcome: No$70Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
19 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
OpenAI Says Its Next AI Model Astra May Be Too Dangerous, Pauses Development
OpenAI Pauses Development of Astra Model Amid Possible Critical Cybersecurity Risks. • OpenAI has announced a deliberate slowdown in aspects of its work on Astra, an advanced AI system still under development, after recent internal assessments raised the possibility that the model could possess high-level cybersecurity abilities. The company stated that evaluations conducted over several days revealed... Read More
OpenAI fears its future model could be too powerful: the startup is pausing some of Astra's activities due to cybersecurity risks.
OpenAI's Astra model delay spotlights AI scaling risks
astra is a powerful model and we are working to make it generally available. • • we do not think it is a good strategy to keep powerful models to a chosen few. • • given its cyber capabilities, we need a little big longer to do do this safely. but hopefully not too long!
OpenAI Postpones Launch of Next-Gen AI 'Astra'... "Concerns Over Cyberattack Risks"
OpenAI says it slowed Astra model development over security concerns
Astra model: OpenAI partially halts AI development due to security concerns
Evaluations of our next major model, Astra, indicate significant capability advancements in agentic coding and cybersecurity. • • Team is doing the safety and security work to make Astra broadly available, and get its advanced cyber capabilities into the hands of defenders:
A White House official tells me OpenAI voluntarily informed the Trump administration of their plans to delay the release of Astra. • • No further details were provided as there are still many open questions among industry players about how the AI framework and pre-release testing works:
A White House official tells me OpenAI voluntarily informed the Trump administration of their plans to delay the release of Astral. • • No further details were provided as there are still many open questions among industry players about how the AI framework and pre-release testing works:
Exclusive: OpenAI slows release of Astra model citing cyber capabilities
NOReuters94%match88¢+14%
OpenAI: Concluded We Cannot Rule Out Critical Cyber Capabilities Under Our Preparedness Framework for Model Astra at This Time
[ ZOOMER ] • • OPENAI TO SLOW DOWN DEVELOPMENT ON ITS NEW ASTRA MODEL AS THEY CANNOT RULE OUT CRITICAL CYBER CAPABILITIES, WHILST POLYMARKET.COM ODDS IT IS RELEASED BY THE END OF THIS MONTH SIT AT 66%: AXIOS
OpenAI Slows Release Of Astra Model Citing Cyber Capabilities – @axios •
OPENAI SLOWS RELEASE OF ASTRA MODEL CITING CYBER CAPABILITIES- AXIOS
NOReuters93%match68¢+47%
OpenAI Slows Release of Astra Model Citing Cyber Capabilities- Axios
EXCLUSIVE: OpenAI slows release of Astra model citing cyber capabilities
Exclusive: OpenAI slows release of Astra model citing cyber capabilities
Where does the news lean?
0YES22NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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See all outcomes for OpenAI’s Astra released — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.