Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?No Meeting by June 30
ResolvedOutcome: No$332Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
41 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
No indication US-Iran direct talks have begun - Axios
While both the Iranian and US delegations are at the hotel where the #IslamabadTalks are scheduled to be held, the talks have Not Yet started.
Ahead of talks with US, Iranian negotiator says "We have goodwill, but we do not trust"
The US delegation participating in the Iran negotiations departed for Pakistan.
Islamabad waiting for US and Iran delegations to arrive
Iran's deputy foreign minister says his country's negotiating delegation will head to Islamabad.
Iranian Foreign Ministry: There are currently no negotiations with the United States.
Alan Ayre, former Persian-speaking spokesman for the US State Department: There are no ongoing negotiations with Iran.
No one can trust US diplomacy anymore: Baghaei • •
Update: Reuters via Iranian media: Iran's Foreign Ministry says there are no direct negotiations with the United States.
Reuters, citing Iranian media: The Iranian Foreign Ministry says there are no direct negotiations with the United States.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi: • • "At present there is no ground for negotiation. Trust is at zero. There is no trust that negotiation with the United States can lead to results."
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: "Public opinion in Iran is not ready to talk about negotiations with the US, they cannot be trusted"
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: Iranian public opinion is absolutely not ready to talk about negotiations or diplomacy with America.
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: "The United States is not serious about diplomacy."
Iran FM says not responded to US plan, 'no negotiations'
US and Iran are exchanging messages, but not negotiating - Iranian foreign minister
Iran's Foreign Ministry Denies Talks With U.S. -- WSJ
Iranian Foreign Ministry: No negotiations took place with the Americans; what happened was that they requested negotiations.
Iran is not seriously considering Washington's proposals for negotiations given the duplicity of American positions.
Iran denies holding direct talks with the United States, stating that messages were exchanged only through intermediaries. Details from our correspondent in Tehran, Hazem Kallas.
Iran denies holding direct talks with the United States, stating that messages were exchanged only through intermediaries. Details from our correspondent in Tehran, Hazem Kallas:
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: We have not held any direct negotiations with the United States so far. We received messages through intermediaries regarding the United States' desire to negotiate.
#Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei says no direct talks with US took place, only messages via intermediaries.
#Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei no direct talks with US took place, only messages via intermediaries.
YESReuters99%match23¢-100%
Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei Says No Direct Talks with U.S. Took Place, Only Messages via Intermediaries
US Secretary of State: Iran has not yet responded to our plan.
Watch: 'No intention of negotiating' with US, says Iran's foreign minister
Iranian Foreign Minister: Iran exchanged information with the US through a mediator; there were no negotiations.
Araqchi: No negotiations have been held with the American side @iribnews [in reply to: Araqchi: Iran's positions in the war are strong We want the war to end in a way that will never happen again. @iribnews]
Iranian FM denies negotiations with U.S.
Live: Iran’s foreign minister rejects reports of talks with US
BREAKING: Araqchi: The US is sending messages through various intermediaries. Sending messages through intermediaries does not mean negotiations. The higher authorities are reviewing the proposals. Tehran has no intention of holding talks with the US.
Iran's FM Aragchi says there are no talks with the US: ‘The enemy failed in its war goals, including regime change’
Iranian Foreign Minister: There will be no negotiations with the American side, which is sending messages through various intermediaries.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi: The exchange of messages via mediators does not mean negotiation with the US.
#Breaking | Iranian Foreign Minister: There are no talks with the United States My message to neighboring countries is to distance yourselves from America.
YESReuters99%match17¢-100%
Iran’s Araqchi Says Exchange of Messages via Mediators “Does Not Mean Negotiation” with the U.S.
Iran's Foreign Minister Araqchi: There Are No Talks With US
An Iranian official told Iran's Press TV: Iran has informed all mediators that it will not hold any negotiations before its conditions are accepted.
BREAKING: Iran's military chiefs have rejected talks with US and Iranian foreign ministry said their is large mistrust in US negotiation efforts-Reuters
Where does the news lean?
41YES8NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
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