Russia Parliamentary Election WinnerNew People (NL)
ResolvedOutcome: No$270Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Russian parliamentary elections: Putin's ruling party wins landslide victory, accelerating hardline stance towards continued aggression
NONews92%match100¢
URGENTLY "New People" will receive 20 parliamentary seats - Pamfilova
"New People" has crossed the 8% mark of the vote in the State Duma elections after processing about 33% of the protocols. Five parties are still entering the Duma: "United Russia" is gaining 56.97%; CPRF - 13.95%; LDPR - 9.26%; "New People" - 8.06%; "A Just Russia" - 5.22%. To not miss the most important news: Website | MAX
Parliamentary elections concluded in Russia on the evening of September 20. According to preliminary data, the composition of the new State Duma will remain unchanged: exit polls and early results from the Far East suggest all five parliamentary parties will overcome the 5% threshold. The only notable change may be New People's move to fourth place, pushing A Just Russia down to fifth. However, turnout is likely to be a record for at least the past ten years. #elections2026
Vyacheslav Davankov, one of the leaders of the New People party, criticized the idea of prioritizing personnel promotions for SVO members: "If we want to grow, we need professionals. If we want to degrade, let's give all the positions to those we like today." He made the statement in the context of defending his colleague, State Duma candidate Alexander Zitzer. The reason for this was Zitzer's statement that people should be appointed to leadership positions based on their abilities, not their mere participation in combat. Davankov supported his fellow party member: SVO participants are not a "separate caste." He also recalled that, according to the Constitution, all citizens are equal before the law and their rights must be respected. Davankov's words are part of the New People's campaign positioning. With the party's campaign for the State Duma elections not going well, New People is attempting a lighter use of the peace agenda to mobilize voters critical of the SVO. The main problem with New People, according to the political strategist, is that voters don't associate the party with a genuine demand for an end to the war. Its representatives occasionally speak of the need to end hostilities, but they accompany such statements with caveats. As a result, a significant portion of the anti-war audience distrusts the party. The Yabloko party's withdrawal from the elections was expected to lead to some of its voters defecting to New People. But sociologists warned that Yabloko's withdrawal would not generate new votes for New People, but would only worsen its ratings. And so it did. Yabloko's voters either refused to participate in the elections or defected to the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. Now, a week before the elections, New People has decided to hype up and moderately radicalize its peace agenda. This is based on criticism of the social mobility programs for SVO participants, overseen by Sergei Kiriyenko, a close associate of New People. The result is an artificially polarized conflict, aimed at attracting anti-war voters, regional bureaucrats, and businesses. For the party, such polarization can be advantageous: it allows it to distance itself from the most militaristic part of the political field without taking an outright anti-war stance. Moreover, New People doesn't directly oppose the war, but merely distances itself from militaristic and conservative aesthetics. In the fifth year of the war, such a message, the interviewee believes, isn't enough for the urban intelligentsia and entrepreneurs—groups that could have constituted a significant portion of its electorate. The party's current rhetoric, in his view, remains more of a PR exercise than an independent political position. The political strategist also links the change in party rhetoric to a broader public demand for peace, which, in his opinion, also influences the Kremlin's statements. He notes that the Russian president, in his speeches on May 9, 2026, and in late August, spoke of the nearing completion of the "special military operation." Presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov formulated this even more clearly, stating that the Kremlin is confident victory is near. According to the political strategist, such rhetoric allows the authorities to align their policies with public expectations and simultaneously present a demand for an end to the war in a form acceptable to the Kremlin. In this sense, he believes, New People remains an important indicator of the state of the party system.
NORussian Media98%match99¢+1%
Marketplaces may be used in the State Duma elections In the 2026 State Duma elections, marketplaces could be used to engage citizens in the electoral process, increase voter turnout, and boost United Russia's results. Three sources close to the presidential administration told Vedomosti that this option is being discussed. A similar project is aimed at collectively shaping the country's future, one of the interviewees clarifies, and has received the tentative title "Cards of the Future." Such "cards" can be embedded into the consumer's feed – it will be possible to "add" to the basket not only goods, but also "social options" – schools, public amenities, infrastructure – everything that the voter wants to see. Consumers who add cards to their cart will be offered sweepstakes and promo codes. Only after that will the link to United Russia's "people's program" and the incentive to mobilize for in-person and remote voting in September be established. Telegram | Max
Where does the news lean?
2YES21NO9neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
How did this market resolve?
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
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