Russia Parliamentary Election WinnerA Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
Open$742Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Only a quarter of experts are confident that the Just Russia faction will remain in the State Duma. This is stated in a study of party resources and strategies in the elections conducted by the Russian Association of Public Opinion (RASO). 60% believe that Just Russia will be able to overcome the 5% barrier. Not a single expert surveyed doubted the passage of United Russia (UR), the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF), the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), and New People (NL). According to the party lists, experts predict UR will get 95-130 mandates, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation – 30-44, NL – 20-32, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia – 15-30, and SR – 10-18. The SR campaign is almost invisible, states Mikhail Vinogradov, president of the Petersburg Politics Foundation. In his opinion, most voters are surprised that such a party exists or remains afloat. "The party's only public political statement was criticism of internet restrictions, which was quite resonant, but, so to speak, had little impact," the political scientist believes.
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State Duma Deputy Speaker Alexander Babakov will run for election in the Smolensk region. One of the leaders of A Just Russia, State Duma Deputy Speaker Alexander Babakov, will likely run in a single-mandate constituency in one of the country's western regions. A source close to the presidential administration told Vedomosti this. He added that it's possible he'll run in the Smolensk region. A source close to the party's leadership also didn't rule out Babakov's nomination from the constituency. If this happens, it would effectively guarantee his reelection—even if SR itself doesn't get into parliament, notes one observer close to the party. Currently, the largest polling companies estimate the electoral rating of A Just Russia at between 4% and 5.8%. Babakov has been with A Just Russia since the party's inception; he is, in fact, one of its founders, notes Boris Makarenko, president of the Center for Political Technologies. This explains why he is so important to A Just Russia, he argues. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
NORussian Media99%match99¢+1%
Marketplaces may be used in the State Duma elections In the 2026 State Duma elections, marketplaces could be used to engage citizens in the electoral process, increase voter turnout, and boost United Russia's results. Three sources close to the presidential administration told Vedomosti that this option is being discussed. A similar project is aimed at collectively shaping the country's future, one of the interviewees clarifies, and has received the tentative title "Cards of the Future." Such "cards" can be embedded into the consumer's feed – it will be possible to "add" to the basket not only goods, but also "social options" – schools, public amenities, infrastructure – everything that the voter wants to see. Consumers who add cards to their cart will be offered sweepstakes and promo codes. Only after that will the link to United Russia's "people's program" and the incentive to mobilize for in-person and remote voting in September be established. Telegram | Max
Where does the news lean?
0YES4NO14neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
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