Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva
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The market prices a 13% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES13¢
NO87¢
as of
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15 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Public opinion polls in Brazil show President Lula Silva leading his right-wing rival Bolsonaro.
Lula da Silva leads his right-wing rival by 4 points in Brazilian opinion polls. Details from our correspondent, Daddah Abdallah.
Polls: Lula da Silva leads his right-wing rival Flavio Bolsonaro in the Brazilian presidential race
Lula holds tight lead over Senator Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election, poll shows
Poll shows Lula leading in Brazil Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads the Quaest poll of 13 presidential candidates with 38 percent of the vote.
El presidente brasileño, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, encabeza la intención de voto con un 39% para la primera vuelta, según una encuesta de Genial/Quaest registrada ante el Tribunal Superior Electoral. • • En segundo lugar se ubica el senador Flávio Bolsonaro con un 30%, mientras que el actual mandatario mantiene la delantera en todos los escenarios de balotaje frente a los demás candidatos. • • Ante este panorama de cara a octubre, la plataforma del Partido de los Trabajadores plantea la continuidad de políticas asistenciales, la ampliación de programas estudiantiles y la protección a adultos mayores para consolidar su base social.
Brazilian President Lula da Silva leads with 39% of the vote intention in the first round and wins in all runoff scenarios, according to a Genial/Quaest poll. Flávio Bolsonaro registers 30%. 69% of the electorate says their vote is final. Undecided: 10%. #teleSUR #Brazil #Elections2026 #Brazil #Lula #Elections2026 #LatinAmerica #teleSUR
#Brazil elections: Poll shows Lula leading Bolsonaro
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Lula leads Bolsonaro but gap narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll shows
Brazil’s Lula holds lead over Bolsonaro in BTG/Nexus election poll
Lula leads with 48.9% of voting intention for 2026. Brazilian President Lula da Silva has overtaken Flávio Bolsonaro (41.8%), whose approval rating plummeted following revelations of corruption links and a request for 134 million reais to finance a film about Jair Bolsonaro. What impact will this have on Brazilian politics? #Brazil #Lula #Bolsonaro #teleSUR
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the first major poll for this year's presidential election. • • More Here →
Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro are tied in the polls for Brazil's presidential election. According to the latest survey by Genial/Quaest, Lula has 42% support compared to Bolsonaro's 41%, a difference of only one percentage point. The survey, conducted from May 8 to 11, 2026, interviewed more than 2,000 people over the age of 16, with a margin of error of 2%.
Poll reveals high polarization in Brazil's presidential elections. Lula leads the voting intention for the first round with 37%. Flavio Bolsonaro is in second place with 32%, followed by Ronaldo Caiado (6%) and Zema (3%). The Quaest poll (April 9-13) indicates that right-wing and far-right candidates together account for 41%.
Lula confirms Geraldo Alckmin as his presidential running mate for the October elections Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced that current Vice President and Minister of Development, Industry, Trade and Services, Geraldo Alckmin, will leave his cabinet post to join him again on the presidential ticket. The elections are scheduled for October 4. During a cabinet meeting in Brasilia, Lula declared that "comrade Alckmin will have to leave the ministry because he will be a candidate for the vice presidency of the Republic again."
Where does the news lean?
3YES28NO15neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
What would make this resolve YES?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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