Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Odds jumped to 94% on Oct 4, 2026

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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? On , the market’s odds jumped from 68.5¢ to 94.5¢ (+26 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Channel 12 (N12).

How did the odds move?

At match68.5¢
+5m81.7¢
+30m87.7¢
+1h94.5¢
1h move+26 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

NeutralChannel 12 (N12)98%match
Assaf Rosenzweig The polls have closed in the first round of the Brazilian presidential election: none of the candidates is expected to reach 50%, and President Lula da Silva and right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro are expected to face off in the second round in three weeks.

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 99% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES99¢
NO1¢

Vol$2.1M

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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.