Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceFlávio Bolsonaro
Open$431Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 85% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES85¢
NO16¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Lula leads in the polls in Brazil with 39% after the start of the campaign. Datafolha: in the first round, Lula 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro 32%; in the second round, 47% versus 43%, according to the poll. #Brazil #Elections #Lula #teleSUR
Lula leads in voting intentions with 39%, according to the first Datafolha poll since the start of the campaign. Flávio Bolsonaro registers 33% and Caiado 5%; in a runoff election, there is a statistical tie (47% versus 43%). #teleSUR #Brazil #Elections #LatinAmerica #SouthGlobal @teleSURtv
Lula leads with 41% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 36% and will win in the second round (47%-44%), according to BTG/Nexus. Lula leads among women, Bolsa Família, and the Northeast; Flávio leads among men and the South. #teleSUR #Brazil #Elections2026 #Aug17
Lula leads Quaest poll: 39% in the first round vs. 30% for Flávio Bolsonaro. He wins all runoff scenarios. #Brazil #Lula #Elections2026 #teleSUR #Aug5
Republicans, Progressives, União Brasil, and Podemos deny support for Flávio Bolsonaro. The Brazilian right opts for neutrality and isolates Bolsonarism. Without TV airtime, Bolsonaro's son's campaign is suffocating. #teleSUR #Brazil #Bolsonaro #Aug4
Flavio Bolsonaro closes in on Lula in Nexus/BTG poll for Brazil election
Lula leads Flavio Bolsonaro in potential Brazil runoff, poll shows
Presidential election in Brazil: Flavio Bolsonaro launches his campaign against President Lula
Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has been confirmed as the Liberal Party's candidate for president of Brazil. At the conference he launched, a message from Prime Minister Netanyahu was broadcast: "You will bring Brazil to great heights" @RamEliBrandts
Flávio Bolsonaro, proclaimed the Liberal Party's presidential candidate in Brazil. "Brazil has been kidnapped and we are going to liberate our country," he declared. Jair Bolsonaro spoke via video with AI. Milei attended; Netanyahu sent his support. #Brazil #FlávioBolsonaro #teleSUR
Brazilian right-wing party nominates Bolsonaro's eldest son for the next presidential election; he has good relations with Trump.
Flavio Bolsonaro, a senator and son of imprisoned ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, is formally nominated by his party as candidate in the October presidential election. He is set to face leftist incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva who is seeking a 4th term. •
Brazilian Presidential Election: Bolsonaro's eldest son officially announces candidacy; Trump also offers support
Flavio Bolsonaro officially announces his candidacy for the Brazilian presidential election.
Crisis-hit Flavio Bolsonaro launches presidential candidacy in Brazil
Lula leads with 48% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 43% in the race for the October presidential elections, according to Datafolha. The margin has barely changed since June. The far-right candidate will be officially launched this Saturday in São Paulo with Javier Milei as a guest. #teleSUR #Brazil #Lula
Lula leads Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil election poll
Poll reveals high polarization in Brazil's presidential elections. Lula leads the voting intention for the first round with 37%. Flavio Bolsonaro is in second place with 32%, followed by Ronaldo Caiado (6%) and Zema (3%). The Quaest poll (April 9-13) indicates that right-wing and far-right candidates together account for 41%.
YESReuters99%match64¢+33%
Lula Seen with 37% and Flavio Bolsonaro 32% in First Round of Brazil’s Presidential Election - Genial/Quaest Poll
Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro even in Brazil election second-round, Datafolha poll shows
Where does the news lean?
38YES14NO14neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 60% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
What would make this resolve YES?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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