Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceFlávio Bolsonaro
ResolvedOutcome: No$2.7Mas of
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This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
36 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his rival Flávio Bolsonaro will face off in a presidential runoff election after Bolsonaro led the first round, with neither securing more than 50% of the vote. #Brazil
Brazil presidential election heads to runoff; pro-American right-winger and incumbent left-winger in a close race; economy and security measures to be key issues.
Brazil Presidential Election: Pro-American Right Candidate vs. Incumbent Left Candidate to Head to Runoff Vote on the 25th (Defeat after Incumbent Fails to Secure a Majority)
Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva have advanced to the second round of Brazil's presidential elections.
An "unexpected" result in the first round of the presidential election in Brazil: Flávio Bolsonaro overtakes Lula in a deeply polarized country.
An "unexpected" result in the first round of the presidential election in Brazil: Flávio Bolsonaro overtakes Lula in a deeply polarized country
Flavio Bolsonaro leads Lula in Brazil elections... Second round to decide the race 86%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A8%D9%8A%D9%86-%D9%84%D9%88%D9%84%D8%A7-%D8%AF%D8%A7-%D8%B3%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%81%D8%A7-%D9%88%D9%81%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%81%D9%8A%D9%88-%D8%A8%D9%88%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%88
Lula and Bolsonaro's son Flávio will face each other in a runoff election in Brazil.
Brazil election heads for run-off as Flávio Bolsonaro wins first round over President Lula
Brazil’s presidential race to go to second round as Flávio Bolsonaro leads incumbent Lula
Lula leads in the polls in Brazil with 39% after the start of the campaign. Datafolha: in the first round, Lula 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro 32%; in the second round, 47% versus 43%, according to the poll. #Brazil #Elections #Lula #teleSUR
Lula leads in voting intentions with 39%, according to the first Datafolha poll since the start of the campaign. Flávio Bolsonaro registers 33% and Caiado 5%; in a runoff election, there is a statistical tie (47% versus 43%). #teleSUR #Brazil #Elections #LatinAmerica #SouthGlobal @teleSURtv
Lula leads with 41% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 36% and will win in the second round (47%-44%), according to BTG/Nexus. Lula leads among women, Bolsa Família, and the Northeast; Flávio leads among men and the South. #teleSUR #Brazil #Elections2026 #Aug17
Lula leads Quaest poll: 39% in the first round vs. 30% for Flávio Bolsonaro. He wins all runoff scenarios. #Brazil #Lula #Elections2026 #teleSUR #Aug5
Republicans, Progressives, União Brasil, and Podemos deny support for Flávio Bolsonaro. The Brazilian right opts for neutrality and isolates Bolsonarism. Without TV airtime, Bolsonaro's son's campaign is suffocating. #teleSUR #Brazil #Bolsonaro #Aug4
Flavio Bolsonaro closes in on Lula in Nexus/BTG poll for Brazil election
Lula leads Flavio Bolsonaro in potential Brazil runoff, poll shows
Presidential election in Brazil: Flavio Bolsonaro launches his campaign against President Lula
Flávio Bolsonaro, proclaimed the Liberal Party's presidential candidate in Brazil. "Brazil has been kidnapped and we are going to liberate our country," he declared. Jair Bolsonaro spoke via video with AI. Milei attended; Netanyahu sent his support. #Brazil #FlávioBolsonaro #teleSUR
Brazilian right-wing party nominates Bolsonaro's eldest son for the next presidential election; he has good relations with Trump.
Flavio Bolsonaro, a senator and son of imprisoned ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, is formally nominated by his party as candidate in the October presidential election. He is set to face leftist incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva who is seeking a 4th term. •
Brazilian Presidential Election: Bolsonaro's eldest son officially announces candidacy; Trump also offers support
Flavio Bolsonaro officially announces his candidacy for the Brazilian presidential election.
Crisis-hit Flavio Bolsonaro launches presidential candidacy in Brazil
Lula leads with 48% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 43% in the race for the October presidential elections, according to Datafolha. The margin has barely changed since June. The far-right candidate will be officially launched this Saturday in São Paulo with Javier Milei as a guest. #teleSUR #Brazil #Lula
Lula leads Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil election poll
#Lula leads all election simulations for 2026: 40% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 34% in the first round, according to BTG Pactual. In a spontaneous poll, the difference widens to 11 points. In the second round: 47% to 44%. #Brazil #teleSUR
Lula leads with 48.9% of voting intention for 2026. Brazilian President Lula da Silva has overtaken Flávio Bolsonaro (41.8%), whose approval rating plummeted following revelations of corruption links and a request for 134 million reais to finance a film about Jair Bolsonaro. What impact will this have on Brazilian politics? #Brazil #Lula #Bolsonaro #teleSUR
Brazil: Flávio Bolsonaro falls 6pps to trail Lula in runoff as scandal hits – Atlas • • via @EmergingMWatch • • Full Story →
Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro are tied in the polls for Brazil's presidential election. According to the latest survey by Genial/Quaest, Lula has 42% support compared to Bolsonaro's 41%, a difference of only one percentage point. The survey, conducted from May 8 to 11, 2026, interviewed more than 2,000 people over the age of 16, with a margin of error of 2%.
Links to Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's scam exposed in Brazil In Brazil, alleged links between Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, and the imprisoned fraudulent banker Daniel Vorcaro have been revealed. This information exposes possible illicit connections and raises questions about corruption in politics. What consequences do you think this revelation will have on the Brazilian political landscape? Share your opinion! Fraud Links of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro Exposed in Brazil. #IgnacioLemus
Poll reveals high polarization in Brazil's presidential elections. Lula leads the voting intention for the first round with 37%. Flavio Bolsonaro is in second place with 32%, followed by Ronaldo Caiado (6%) and Zema (3%). The Quaest poll (April 9-13) indicates that right-wing and far-right candidates together account for 41%.
FLAVIO BOLSONARO SEEN WITH 42% OF VOTE VS LULA'S 40% IN BRAZIL'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION POTENTIAL RUN-OFF - GENIAL/QUAEST POLL
NOReuters99%match36¢+178%
Flavio Bolsonaro Seen with 42% of Vote vs Lula’s 40% in Brazil’s Presidential Election Potential Run-Off - Genial/Quaest Poll
YESReuters99%match64¢-100%
Lula Seen with 37% and Flavio Bolsonaro 32% in First Round of Brazil’s Presidential Election - Genial/Quaest Poll
Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro even in Brazil election second-round, Datafolha poll shows
Where does the news lean?
56YES22NO25neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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