When will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz?March 31

ResolvedOutcome: YesVol$5.5MResolvedas of

Odds now

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

49 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

NOalmayadeenlive99%match0¢
Iran: Shariati to Al-Mayadeen: Iran does not completely close the Strait of Hormuz, but rather controls the traffic and maintains its grip on it.
NOAl Mayadeen99%match0¢
Iran: Shariati to Al-Mayadeen: Iran does not completely close the Strait of Hormuz, but rather controls the traffic and maintains its grip on it.
YESCBS Reporter99%match100¢
There is some traffic moving through the Strait of Hormus, Gen Caine says. But he says it is Iran that has effectively closed the waterway that is so key to global trade.
IRAN’S AMBASSADOR TO UN: IRAN WILL NOT CLOSE STRAIT OF HORMUZ • #IRAN #HORMUZ #OOTT • (
Iran has stated that it does not intend to close the Strait of Hormuz.
YESsentdefender98%match100¢
The Pentagon and National Security Council significantly underestimated Iran’s willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to U.S. military strikes while planning the ongoing wide-spread strike operation against Iran, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter who spoke to CNN. • • Top officials with the Trump Administration acknowledged to lawmakers during recent classified briefings that they did not plan for the possibility of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz in response to strikes, under the belief that closing the vital waterways within the strait would hurt Iran more than the United States.
YESalarabytv98%match100¢
Mojtaba Khamenei: The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed to put pressure on the enemy.
NOiranintlbrk98%match0¢
The Islamic Republic's ambassador to the United Nations said that the Iranian government has no intention of closing the Strait of Hormuz, but said Tehran has the inherent right to maintain peace and security in this vital waterway.
NOinvestinglive_99%match0¢
Iran says it will not close Strait of Hormuz but asserts right to secure waterway •
YESsemafor.com99%match100¢
Iran leader vows to keep Strait of Hormuz closed
NOiranintl_en99%match0¢
Iran’s UN ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani said on Thursday that Tehran has no intention of closing the Strait of Hormuz but added that Iran has an inherent right to preserve peace and security in the vital waterway. • • “We are not going to close the Strait of Hormuz, but it is our inherent right to preserve peace and security in this waterway,” official media cited Iravani as saying.
YESnytimes.com99%match100¢
Why Is Iran Blocking the Strait of Hormuz?
NOcnn.com99%match0¢
Iran won’t close Strait of Hormuz, UN envoy says
NOdbws.io99%match0¢
Iran not going to close Strait of Hormuz, Iran UN envoy says
NOinvestinglive_99%match0¢
Iran says its not going close Strait of Hormuz •
YESasia.nikkei.com99%match100¢
Oil settles above $100 as Iran vows to keep Strait of Hormuz closed
YESIran Semi-Official Tasnim99%match100¢
Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz without laying mines! Nima Akbarkhani; Military expert: There are many ways to close the Strait of Hormuz, and laying mines is just one of them. But laying mines means the strait will be closed for a period of several months. @TasnimNews
YESalarabytv99%match100¢
#Breaking | Spokesperson for Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters: The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed
YESenglishfars99%match100¢
Iran's Leader: Strait of Hormuz to Remain Closed •
YESfarsnews_agency99%match100¢
With God's help, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed. 3/3
YESalmayadeenlive99%match100¢
Iran: Revolutionary Guard: The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed
YESinteldoge98%match100¢
A written statement from Mojtaba was read on state TV. He says the Strait of Hormuz will remain essentially closed,…
YESalarabytv99%match100¢
The most important waterway that supplies most of the world with energy... this is what Iran seeks by keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed.
NOosint61399%match0¢
Iran Deputy FM: We're not laying mines in Hormuz Strait - AFP.
YESWalter Bloomberg99%match100¢
U.S. CRUDE FUTURES RISES 10% AFTER IRAN SAYS WILL KEEP STRAIT OF HORMUZ CLOSED
YESfirstsquawk99%match100¢
U.S. CRUDE FUTURES RISES 10 PCT AFTER IRAN SAYS WILL KEEP STRAIT OF HORMUZ CLOSED
YESafpnews99%match100¢
Iran Guards vow to keep Strait of Hormuz closed after Khamenei call
YESasia.nikkei.com99%match100¢
Iran's new supreme leader vows to keep Strait of Hormuz closed
YESReuters Reporter98%match100¢
March 12 (Reuters) - Iran will avenge the blood of its martyrs, keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and attack U.S. bases, new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said on Thursday in a statement read out on state television, his first remarks since succeeding his slain father.
YESCGTN Europe99%match33¢+203%
Ships stopped behind the Strait of Hormuz - reports
YESPolymarket99%match33¢+203%
BREAKING: Iran announces closure of the Strait of Hormuz, blocking access to oil routes.
YESVisegrád 2499%match33¢+203%
BREAKING: Reuters reports that Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz and started turning vessels around. Expect global oil prices to jump
YESGlobe Eye News99%match33¢+203%
BREAKING: Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz.
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧99%match33¢+203%
BREAKING: IRGC is closing the strait of Hormuz and is turning vessels around-Reuters
YESFaytuks News99%match33¢+203%
BREAKING: Iran's Revolutionary Guards have told vessels through VHF transmission that 'no ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz', a EU Aspides official tells Reuters
YESCGTN America99%match33¢+203%
EU ASPIDES OFFICIAL SAYS VESSELS HAVE BEEN RECEIVING VHF TRANSMISSION FROM IRAN'S REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS SAYING 'NO SHIP IS ALLOWED TO PASS THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ'
YESFinancialJuice99%match33¢+203%
EU Aspides official: vessels have been receiving VHF transmission from Iran's Revolutionary Guards stating no ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz
YESCGTN Europe99%match33¢+203%
EU ASPIDES OFFICIAL SAYS VESSELS HAVE BEEN RECEIVING VHF TRANSMISSION FROM IRAN'S REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS SAYING 'NO SHIP IS ALLOWED TO PASS THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ'
YESJoe Weisenthal99%match33¢+203%
RT @JavierBlas: Multiple oil companies / traders have asked their tankers to wait on either side of the Strait of Hormuz for now. Everyone…
YESFirst Squawk98%match31¢+223%
Suspension of oil tankers' passage through the Strait of Hormuz: FARS #BREAKING
YESFirst Squawk98%match29¢+245%
JAPAN'S NIPPON YUSEN TELLS SHIPS NOT TO NAVIGATE AROUND HORMUZ
YESOSINTdefender98%match29¢+245%
Several major oil companies and trading houses have suspended oil and fuel shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, as a result of this morning’s exchange of fire between Israel, Iran, and the United States, according to four trading sources who spoke to Reuters.
YESThe Spectator Index99%match30¢+233%
BREAKING: Several major oil companies suspend oil shipments through Strait of Hormuz, according to Reuters report.
YESOSINTdefender98%match40¢+150%
UKMTO has now advised mariners to be aware of “significant military action” in the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, North Arabian Sea, and the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, UKMTO warned mariners of the potential for increased electronic interference that might disrupt AIS and…
YESAl Jazeera English98%match42¢+138%
[Replying to @AJEnglish] BREAKING: Majid Akhavan, spokesperson for Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization, has announced that "the entire country’s airspace has been closed until further notice." LIVE updates: >
YESGlobe Eye News99%match26¢+285%
BREAKING: Iran officially closes its airspace across the country.
YESFirst Squawk98%match26¢+285%
Iran closes its entire airspace
YESCGTN America99%match26¢+285%
IRAN'S AIRSPACE HAS BEEN CLOSED - TASNIM NEWS AGENCY
YESJennifer Griffin99%match17¢+488%
RT @ProfessorPape: Iran is conducting military exercises on Abu Musa and other islands near Straits of Hormuz — unmistakable threat to shut…

Where does the news lean?

59YES43NO2neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.

How did this market resolve?

If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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