When will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz?December 31
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$5.5Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
43 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz extinguished the flames of the Indian stove Following the escalation of tensions in West Asia and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, India is facing a severe crisis in the supply of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). In major cities like Delhi, Mumbai and Lucknow, people stand in long queues from 4 am with empty capsules to get their quota before the dealers' limited stock runs out. @Farsna [in reply to: Gas cylinders are scarce in India Indian magazine Chitralikha: After the US and Israel attacked Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a shortage of LPG has become apparent in India, and in many regions, conflicts have arisen over the supply of gas cylinders. In some places, capsules are being stolen, and in other places, people are standing in long lines to fill capsules. In the Jhansi region, 524 filled LPG cylinders were stolen from in front of a gas depot. Long queues are seen in front of gas dealers and depots in Lucknow. People say that despite the gas running out, the cylinders are not being delivered to their doorsteps and that is why they have come to collect them themselves. Similar scenes are seen in other areas where people were waiting in long queues. The LPG shortage is also more evident in various areas of Kolkata. Most taxi routes in the city have been affected due to the lack of LPG. A queue of cars, about 1.5 km long, was seen in the Taratala area of south Kolkata. Some people had been standing in the queue since last night and others since this morning. Everyone had been waiting for hours to refill their LPG tanks. @Farsna]
Iran: Shariati to Al-Mayadeen: Iran does not completely close the Strait of Hormuz, but rather controls the traffic and maintains its grip on it.
Iran: Shariati to Al-Mayadeen: Iran does not completely close the Strait of Hormuz, but rather controls the traffic and maintains its grip on it.
There is some traffic moving through the Strait of Hormus, Gen Caine says. But he says it is Iran that has effectively closed the waterway that is so key to global trade.
IRAN’S AMBASSADOR TO UN: IRAN WILL NOT CLOSE STRAIT OF HORMUZ • #IRAN #HORMUZ #OOTT • (
Iran has stated that it does not intend to close the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pentagon and National Security Council significantly underestimated Iran’s willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to U.S. military strikes while planning the ongoing wide-spread strike operation against Iran, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter who spoke to CNN. • • Top officials with the Trump Administration acknowledged to lawmakers during recent classified briefings that they did not plan for the possibility of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz in response to strikes, under the belief that closing the vital waterways within the strait would hurt Iran more than the United States.
The Islamic Republic's ambassador to the United Nations said that the Iranian government has no intention of closing the Strait of Hormuz, but said Tehran has the inherent right to maintain peace and security in this vital waterway.
Iran leader vows to keep Strait of Hormuz closed
Why Is Iran Blocking the Strait of Hormuz?
Iran won’t close Strait of Hormuz, UN envoy says
Iran's envoy to the United Nations: We will not close the Strait of Hormuz, but we have the right to maintain "peace and security" in the waterway.
#Breaking | Iran's UN representative: We will not close the Strait of Hormuz, but it is our right to maintain peace and security in the waterway.
Iran not going to close Strait of Hormuz, Iran UN envoy says
IRAN'S UN ENVOY STATED THAT TEHRAN WILL NOT CLOSE THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, BUT ASSERTED IT IS IRAN'S RIGHT TO PRESERVE PEACE AND SECURITY IN THE WATERWAY.
Iran says its not going close Strait of Hormuz •
Iran's UN Envoy: We are not going to close the Strait of Hormuz, but it is our right to preserve peace and security in the waterway.
Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz without laying mines! Nima Akbarkhani; Military expert: There are many ways to close the Strait of Hormuz, and laying mines is just one of them. But laying mines means the strait will be closed for a period of several months. @TasnimNews
#Breaking | Spokesperson for Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters: The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed
Spokesperson for the Central Headquarters of the Prophets of Iran: The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed The attacks of Iranian armed forces against American-Zionist targets in the region will continue with force.
Iran's Leader: Strait of Hormuz to Remain Closed •
Iran: Revolutionary Guard: The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed
A written statement from Mojtaba was read on state TV. He says the Strait of Hormuz will remain essentially closed,…
U.S. CRUDE FUTURES RISES 10% AFTER IRAN SAYS WILL KEEP STRAIT OF HORMUZ CLOSED
U.S. CRUDE FUTURES RISES 10 PCT AFTER IRAN SAYS WILL KEEP STRAIT OF HORMUZ CLOSED
.@NBCNews Live updates: In first remarks, Iran's new supreme leader vows to keep blocking Strait of Hormuz and vows vengeance for school strike that killed 170 people
NOCGTN Europe99%match50¢-100%
Ships stopped behind the Strait of Hormuz - reports
NOPolymarket99%match50¢-100%
BREAKING: Iran announces closure of the Strait of Hormuz, blocking access to oil routes.
NOVisegrád 2499%match50¢-100%
BREAKING: Reuters reports that Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz and started turning vessels around. Expect global oil prices to jump
NOGlobe Eye News99%match50¢-100%
BREAKING: Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz.
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧99%match50¢-100%
BREAKING: IRGC is closing the strait of Hormuz and is turning vessels around-Reuters
NOFaytuks News99%match50¢-100%
BREAKING: Iran's Revolutionary Guards have told vessels through VHF transmission that 'no ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz', a EU Aspides official tells Reuters
NOCGTN America99%match50¢-100%
EU ASPIDES OFFICIAL SAYS VESSELS HAVE BEEN RECEIVING VHF TRANSMISSION FROM IRAN'S REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS SAYING 'NO SHIP IS ALLOWED TO PASS THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ'
NOFinancialJuice99%match50¢-100%
EU Aspides official: vessels have been receiving VHF transmission from Iran's Revolutionary Guards stating no ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz
NOCGTN Europe99%match50¢-100%
EU ASPIDES OFFICIAL SAYS VESSELS HAVE BEEN RECEIVING VHF TRANSMISSION FROM IRAN'S REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS SAYING 'NO SHIP IS ALLOWED TO PASS THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ'
NOJoe Weisenthal99%match50¢-100%
RT @JavierBlas: Multiple oil companies / traders have asked their tankers to wait on either side of the Strait of Hormuz for now. Everyone…
NOFirst Squawk98%match54¢-100%
Suspension of oil tankers' passage through the Strait of Hormuz: FARS #BREAKING
NOFirst Squawk98%match55¢-100%
JAPAN'S NIPPON YUSEN TELLS SHIPS NOT TO NAVIGATE AROUND HORMUZ
NOOSINTdefender98%match55¢-100%
Several major oil companies and trading houses have suspended oil and fuel shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, as a result of this morning’s exchange of fire between Israel, Iran, and the United States, according to four trading sources who spoke to Reuters.
NOThe Spectator Index99%match56¢-100%
BREAKING: Several major oil companies suspend oil shipments through Strait of Hormuz, according to Reuters report.
NOOSINTdefender98%match48¢-100%
UKMTO has now advised mariners to be aware of “significant military action” in the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, North Arabian Sea, and the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, UKMTO warned mariners of the potential for increased electronic interference that might disrupt AIS and…
NOAl Jazeera English98%match52¢-100%
[Replying to @AJEnglish] BREAKING: Majid Akhavan, spokesperson for Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization, has announced that "the entire country’s airspace has been closed until further notice." LIVE updates: >
NOJennifer Griffin99%match65¢-100%
RT @ProfessorPape: Iran is conducting military exercises on Abu Musa and other islands near Straits of Hormuz — unmistakable threat to shut…
Where does the news lean?
11YES72NO5neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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