Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Odds fell to 11% on Aug 18, 2026

OpenMove

Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? On , the market’s odds fell from 47.5¢ to 10.5¢ (-37 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 3-source news cluster, from iranintl.

How did the odds move?

At match47.5¢
+5m19¢
+30m18¢
+1h10.5¢
+24h5.4¢
1h move-37 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Part of a 3-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

Noiranintl94%match
US President Donald Trump wrote on the Truth Social network on Tuesday, August 17: "There are no negotiations or talks with the Islamic Republic, and no negotiations or talks are planned." He added: "The naval blockade remains in full force, the Strait of Hormuz is open and active, and all naval mines have been collected or detonated."

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 9% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES9¢
NO91¢

Vol$9K

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Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.