Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
ResolvedOutcome: No$12.0Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
YESzerohedge98%match4¢-100%
If the Financial Times report is true, and the US sells $20 billion worth of weapons to Taiwan, it will certainly trigger a very serious crisis. At that time, it's hard to believe that mainland China will simply conduct another island-encircling military exercise; I am more…
NOBloomberg98%match95¢+5%
China reduced military flights into a sensitive area near Taiwan last month, an indication Beijing is tweaking its training focus
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match95¢+5%
China has warned the US that moving ahead with new arms sales to Taiwan could derail President Trumps planned April 2026 visit to Beijing-FT
Where does the news lean?
7YES4NO6neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.