Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)Netanyahu - Israel PM
Open$25Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 43% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES43¢
NO57¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu passes the "strength test" in the Knesset primaries. The results maintain his influence within Likud while sidelining his rivals, and Ben-Gvir announces his support for some candidates despite being outside the party.
Netanyahu won by six votes
Where does the news lean?
8YES4NO18neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 92%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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