Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?↑ 1550
Open$50Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 9% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES9¢
NO92¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
YESCNBC98%match66¢-86%
AI just leveled up and there are no guardrails anymore
Where does the news lean?
1YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
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See all outcomes for Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.