Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Odds jumped to 99% on Sep 22, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? On , the market’s odds jumped from 90¢ to 98.8¢ (+8.8 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from nytimes.com. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match90¢
+5m90.5¢
+30m98.9¢
+1h98.8¢
1h move+8.8 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 22, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 90.5¢ → 98.7¢+8.2 ptsafter a signal from Axios Reporter

What moved the odds?

Yesnytimes.com97%match
Live: Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, met with the Steve Witkoff, U.S. special envoy, and Jared Kushner on the sidelines of the General Assembly at U.N headquarters in New York, according to two Iranian officials. The meeting was mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, which had been pushing hard for Tehran and Washington to return to diplomacy and de-escalate the confict, the sources said. The discussions focused on a pathway for a deal, they said.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$46K

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Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.