Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?30+

OpenVol$48KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 2% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES2¢
NO98¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

11 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NOIran Semi-Official SNN95%match92¢+7%
Kepler: Fewer than 20 ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past two days Shipping data shows that in the past two days, amid the ongoing US naval blockade and Iran's closure of the strait, only 17 ships have passed through. Get the latest news: Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv
NOIranian Media95%match92¢+7%
Kepler: Fewer than 20 ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past two days Shipping data shows that only 17 ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past two days, amid the ongoing US naval blockade and Iran's closure of the strait. isna.ir/xdWWBg @isna94
NOAl Jazeera94%match92¢+7%
Reuters, citing shipping data: Fewer than 20 cargo ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the past two days.
US officials: Approximately 40 oil tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz on the evening of the 21st.
YESSky News Arabia93%match6¢-67%
Axios: Around 40 oil tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz to and from the deep southern channel on Friday night.
YESalarabiya92%match14¢-86%
US Energy Secretary: Iran cannot export any oil at present... and shipping data confirms that the US military controls the Strait of Hormuz ===== US Energy Secretary: Iran cannot export any oil at present Shipping data confirms that the US military controls the Strait of Hormuz Iran's power will continue to decline Our strategy is to impose a crippling economic blockade on Iran Resolving the Iranian problem caused short-term market disruptions More than 30 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz last Saturday... and 30 ships crossed the strait yesterday, Sunday We are continuing to transport oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz From Al Arabiya
YESAl Arabiya94%match14¢-86%
US Energy Secretary: More than 30 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday
YESAl Arabiya94%match14¢-86%
US Energy Secretary: 30 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz yesterday
NOiranintlbrk93%match87¢+13%
Reuters reported that shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz was almost at a standstill on Friday after two other ships were attacked and the US announced that it could extend its naval blockade of Iran indefinitely.
NObfmtv.com97%match83¢+18%
130 ships per day before the war versus 12 today: maritime traffic remains extremely limited in the Strait of Hormuz, as neither the United States nor Iran has any plans to capitulate.
NOalarabiya92%match40¢+145%
A route for entry, another for exit, and thirty days for mine clearance: Key features of the anticipated agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz

Where does the news lean?

10YES65NO3neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.

Past moves on this market

Material odds moves (8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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