Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?100+
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Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
18 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NONews93%match100¢
The average daily number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from 100 before the war to 7.
New York Post: Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz weakens, and shipping traffic in the strait increases by approximately 400% in two weeks under US protection The New York Post reported that Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz appears to be waning. The newspaper revealed that shipping traffic in the vital waterway increased by approximately 400% over the past two weeks, coinciding with more ships using the route under US protection. The report revealed that approximately 200 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz last week, compared to approximately 150 ships the week before and only 40 ships two weeks prior. Shipping traffic in the strait reached approximately 20% of its pre-war level. Under normal circumstances, approximately 20% of the world's seaborne oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. #From_the_Event
New York Post: Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz weakens as shipping traffic surges by nearly 400% in two weeks under US protection ====== The New York Post reported that Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz appears to be waning. The newspaper revealed that shipping traffic in this vital waterway has increased by nearly 400% in the past two weeks, coinciding with more ships using a transit route under US protection. The report revealed that approximately 200 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz last week, compared to about 150 the week before, and only 40 two weeks prior. Shipping traffic in the strait has reached about 20% of its pre-war level. Under normal circumstances, about 20% of the world's seaborne oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. From Al Arabiya
An assessment by the British Maritime Trade Organization also shows that since the beginning of the war against Iran, commercial ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased from nearly 160 to less than 10.
Reuters reported that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a low level Preliminary data showed that only six ships passed through the strait on Tuesday. Get the latest news:
Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv
Since March 2026, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused the largest disruption to oil supplies in history, with the market losing 10.1 million barrels per day, surpassing the impact of the Iranian Revolution and the invasion of Kuwait.
Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still limited Only 13 vessels were able to pass through the Strait of Hormuz the day before, CNN reported on Friday. "The traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still extremely limited: only 13 vessels passed through this waterway on Thursday," the channel reported, citing the company Kpler, which monitors ship traffic.
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Reuters reported that shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been almost completely halted since Friday, August 13, after two Emirati ships were attacked and the US announced that it could continue its naval blockade of the Islamic Republic indefinitely. According to data from tracking company Kepler, only two ships passed through the waterway on Friday; a grain ship entered Iranian waters and an empty bulk carrier headed in the opposite direction. An empty tanker carrying liquefied gas products was also entering the Persian Gulf, and no crude oil cargo was seen passing.
130 ships per day before the war versus 12 today: maritime traffic remains extremely limited in the Strait of Hormuz, as neither the United States nor Iran has any plans to capitulate.
The publication reported that 14 ships had passed through the international waterway yesterday, compared to 130 ships passing through it daily before the war. The Wall Street Journal wrote that of these 14 ships, 11 chose a route that is under Iranian control.
Wall Street Journal: Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to a fifth of pre-war levels in July The Wall Street Journal reported that the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz in July was down by about 80 percent compared to before the war. Before the war, an average of more than 130 ships passed through this route daily, but now this figure has dropped to about 26 ships per day. According to the report, the majority of ships that still pass through the Strait of Hormuz use the "Iranian corridor." This comes as Donald Trump has claimed that the United States has "complete control" of the Strait of Hormuz. Get the latest news:
Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv
The Wall Street Journal also questioned Trump's bluff about the Strait of Hormuz While Trump has repeatedly claimed in recent days that he is testing control of the Strait of Hormuz in an attempt to avoid defeat, the American publication The Wall Street Journal has challenged his claims today by publishing statistics about the Strait of Hormuz. The publication reported that 14 vessels passed through this international waterway yesterday, while before the war, 130 vessels used to pass through this route daily. The Wall Street Journal wrote that out of these 14 vessels, 11 chose a route that is managed by Iran. @Farsna
A senior Iranian official has made a series of demanding requirements for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, including the withdrawal of US troops. Furthermore, the UAE stated that Iran launched a missile attack on one of its ships. These developments have cast a shadow over the prospects of reopening the strait.
The increase in threats and attacks in the Strait of Hormuz has severely reduced shipping traffic and raised concerns about disruptions to global trade. Maritime agencies have warned that the risk of a new attack remains high. Gulf News reported that the possibility of a deliberate attack in the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days is assessed as “very high.” Since March 1, 84 confirmed incidents have been recorded in the waterway, the most recent of which was an attack on an oil tanker on August 8. According to the report, only 40 US-coordinated ship crossings were recorded from August 5 to 8; compared to an average of about 138 ships passing through this route daily in 2025. The Joint Maritime Intelligence Center also announced that the Revolutionary Guards are monitoring commercial ships and communicating with them via wireless. CENTCOM announced that as of August 9, 53 commercial ships had changed their routes and two vessels had ceased operations. The center predicted that the restrictions on traffic in the Strait of Hormuz would continue for at least the next 24 to 48 hours, with ships ready for surveillance, radio calls, and possible inspections.
An Announcement To Reopen The Strait Of Hormuz Remains Elusive. Traffic Is Down To a Trickle. • Only two vessels traveled through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday as negotiations with Iran to reopen it continue.
The United States is hopeful that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz will be done "today or tomorrow", a top official said Tuesday, sending oil prices tumbling on optimism for increased shipments in the vital waterway. • •
CNN reported that while US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant expressed hope that an agreement with the Islamic Republic to resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could be reached “by Tuesday or Wednesday,” shipping analysts say that fewer than 10 ships typically pass through the waterway daily. According to Clapperboard data, only nine crossings of the Strait of Hormuz were recorded on Sunday, August 1, and only two of them were oil tankers. The report also said that some vessels are traveling with their tracking systems turned off, making it difficult to assess the situation. The CEO of Saudi Aramco also said that even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen today, it could take up to 18 months to recover from the loss of oil reserves. He also estimated that global markets are losing more than 100 million barrels of oil per week due to the restrictions on traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
NOReuters92%match100¢
Aramco’s Nasser Says Beyond Refining, Current Trade Flows Through the Strait of Hormuz Are at a Tenth of Pre-Conflict Levels and the World Will Continue to Lose More Than 100 Million Barrels for Each Week the Strait is Closed
Where does the news lean?
16YES61NO8neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 81% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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