Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?60+
Open$30Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
17 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Ghoribabadi: Southern route of the Strait of Hormuz will be closed Deputy Foreign Minister: The southern route of the Strait of Hormuz will be closed and this is an agreement. Oman accepts that this route will be closed and the matter will be reported to the International Maritime Organization. Negotiations between Iran and Oman for the future management of the Strait of Hormuz will begin, which will take up to 60 days to determine joint arrangements. If Iran's requirements are not met, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed.
At its lowest point in four months: only two ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, compared to 140 before the war.
At its lowest point in four months: only two ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, compared to 140 before the war.
Donald Trump insists it is open to shipping, but ship owners continue to avoid it: the number of passages through the Strait of Hormuz fell to six on Tuesday.
Maritime traffic data: From Tuesday to Wednesday morning, only 6 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz, as ship owners refused to transit due to the lack of clear signs about the reopening of the waterway / Selection
Reuters reported that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a low level Preliminary data showed that only six ships passed through the strait on Tuesday. Get the latest news:
Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv
NOReuters93%match98¢+2%
Strait of Hormuz Vessel Crossings Stays Low, with Just Six Vessels Transiting on Tuesday, Preliminary Data Shows
Kepler data: 5 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, and traffic came to a complete standstill on Sunday. #AlArabiya_Business
Kepler: On Saturday, only five ships carrying essential goods passed through the Strait of Hormuz; no ships passed through on Sunday This is while at the beginning of last week, 31 ships had passed through the Strait / Selection
Since March 2026, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused the largest disruption to oil supplies in history, with the market losing 10.1 million barrels per day, surpassing the impact of the Iranian Revolution and the invasion of Kuwait.
130 ships per day before the war versus 12 today: maritime traffic remains extremely limited in the Strait of Hormuz, as neither the United States nor Iran has any plans to capitulate.
The publication reported that 14 ships had passed through the international waterway yesterday, compared to 130 ships passing through it daily before the war. The Wall Street Journal wrote that of these 14 ships, 11 chose a route that is under Iranian control.
The Wall Street Journal also questioned Trump's bluff about the Strait of Hormuz While Trump has repeatedly claimed in recent days that he is testing control of the Strait of Hormuz in an attempt to avoid defeat, the American publication The Wall Street Journal has challenged his claims today by publishing statistics about the Strait of Hormuz. The publication reported that 14 vessels passed through this international waterway yesterday, while before the war, 130 vessels used to pass through this route daily. The Wall Street Journal wrote that out of these 14 vessels, 11 chose a route that is managed by Iran. @Farsna
Wall Street Journal: Only 14 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, Tuesday.
Hormuz Traffic Sank To Just Six Vessels Monday
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been reduced to a minimum Maritime transport data shows that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased to 6 ships yesterday. This is while the 10-day average of this figure was about 11 ships. @ilnair
Two-month open without fees: Initial details revealed of Omani-Iranian agreement on the Strait of Hormuz ====== A high-ranking source told Al Arabiya: The two sides have agreed to a temporary opening of the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days without transit fees. The agreement is considered a first phase until the completion of technical negotiations and the removal of all mines. The proposed agreement stipulates that ships entering the Gulf will use the passage closest to Iran, while departing ships will pass through the passage parallel to the Omani coast, with the middle passage to be discussed later with the participation of regional parties. Trump indicated that negotiations regarding the Strait of Hormuz are progressing positively and that oil prices will decrease once the war ends. From Al Arabiya
Where does the news lean?
5YES57NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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