Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? Odds jumped to 32% on Aug 11, 2026

OpenMove

Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? On , the market’s odds jumped from 20¢ to 32¢ (+12 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Iran Semi-Official ILNA.

How did the odds move?

At match20¢
+5m20¢
+30m32.5¢
+1h32¢
+24h22.5¢
1h move+12 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

NoIran Semi-Official ILNA96%match
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been reduced to a minimum Maritime transport data shows that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased to 6 ships yesterday. This is while the 10-day average of this figure was about 11 ships. @ilnair

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 2% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES2¢
NO98¢

Vol$47K

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Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.