Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?50+
Open$23Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Since March 2026, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused the largest disruption to oil supplies in history, with the market losing 10.1 million barrels per day, surpassing the impact of the Iranian Revolution and the invasion of Kuwait.
130 ships per day before the war versus 12 today: maritime traffic remains extremely limited in the Strait of Hormuz, as neither the United States nor Iran has any plans to capitulate.
The Wall Street Journal also questioned Trump's bluff about the Strait of Hormuz While Trump has repeatedly claimed in recent days that he is testing control of the Strait of Hormuz in an attempt to avoid defeat, the American publication The Wall Street Journal has challenged his claims today by publishing statistics about the Strait of Hormuz. The publication reported that 14 vessels passed through this international waterway yesterday, while before the war, 130 vessels used to pass through this route daily. The Wall Street Journal wrote that out of these 14 vessels, 11 chose a route that is managed by Iran. @Farsna
Wall Street Journal: Only 14 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, Tuesday.
Where does the news lean?
0YES26NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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