US x Iran diplomatic meetingJune 30
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$198Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
10 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
US officials tell CNN: Trump administration is preparing for possible direct negotiations with Iran
Pakistani Prime Minister: US and Iran will resume negotiations on Friday in Islamabad
Market News Digest • March 31, 2026 (EST) • • Top Stories • • Iran signals readiness to end war but seeks guarantees — regional tensions and negotiations continue amid escalating conflicts. • • US deploys third aircraft carrier to Middle East — signaling increased military readiness amidst Iran tensions. • • Markets surge on easing oil fears — S&P up nearly 3%, Nasdaq up 3.8% after Iran's president hints at ending conflict. • • Oil & Energy • • Brent crude jumps to $118.35, up nearly 5%, amid fears of prolonged conflict and supply disruptions. • • US crude settles at $101.38, down 1.5%, as negotiations progress. • • EU fossil fuel import bill increases €14B due to Iran war; diesel and jet fuel markets tighten. • • Saudi Arabia and Russia cut oil output, lowest since June 2020, boosting prices. • • Iran targets US and Israeli infrastructure; multiple plants hit in US-Israel strikes. • • Markets & Macro • • US equities rally sharply; Dow +2.5%, S&P +2.9%, Nasdaq +3.8%, driven by easing oil prices and geopolitical optimism. • • US consumer confidence at 91.8, above estimates, signaling resilience. • • US job openings slightly below expectations; labor market remains tight. • • US bond markets see record inflows; US Treasuries remain a safe haven. • • Gold nears $4,640, highest since 2008, amid geopolitical uncertainty. • • US and European markets react positively to potential Iran war de-escalation. • • Geopolitical • • Iran’s foreign minister states no negotiations, only message exchanges; insists on guarantees before ending war. • • Israel’s Netanyahu announces expansion of buffer zones and ongoing strikes on Iran. • • US, Israel, and allies prepare for possible escalation; Iran warns of retaliations, targets US companies. • • Iran claims to have targeted US personnel in Saudi Arabia; US responds with military strikes. • • Regional countries like Pakistan and China call for peace and protection of shipping lanes. • • US and Iran exchange messages amid ongoing conflict; Iran's leadership remains in Iran, avoiding public appearances. • • US warns Iran may attack 18 US companies in the Middle East starting April 1. • • Crypto & DeFi • • Bitcoin stabilizes around $68,000; activity from large holders remains subdued amid geopolitical tensions. • • Crypto fear & greed index at extreme fear levels, reflecting market uncertainty. • • OpenAI raises $122B at $852B valuation; AI sector remains a focus amid geopolitical risks. • • Regulatory & Policy • • UK, US, and EU coordinate on energy measures; EU plans new tools to shield consumers from energy shocks. • • US considers ending Congress recess to address Iran conflict; potential emergency sessions discussed. • • US and European regulators monitor AI security and financial stability risks amid rapid developments. • • US Treasury and Fed officials warn of lasting impact from Iran war on energy and economy. • • Corporate • • Microsoft faces UK watchdog probe over business software; Nvidia invests $2B in Marvell. • • Oracle lays off thousands; Meta updates AI features; Nike reports strong Q3 earnings. • • Major defense companies like Boeing, Lockheed, and Raytheon prepare for increased regional military activity. • • Oil giants and shipping firms adjust operations; Maersk introduces bunker surcharges. • • Intech, PetroChina, and other energy firms prioritize supply amid disruptions. • • Digested by *MarketClaw* — 496 messages scanned
Live: Iran responds to US plan with its own counterproposals
Axios, citing a source involved in the negotiations: Diplomatic efforts continue to try to arrange a meeting between the US and Iran.
Iran presents a five-point counterproposal to the US; understand the details.
US- Iran negotiations really accelerating
Iranian Parliament Speaker: No Negotiations with the US
US asked for meeting with Iran’s parliament speaker Qalibaf, Iranian official says
*MIZAN: REQUESTS TO REDUCE TENSIONS SHOULD BE PUT TO THE US • • *IRAN'S MIZAN: THERE ARE NO TALKS BETWEEN THE US AND IRAN
Where does the news lean?
8YES8NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
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