US x Iran Effective Ceasefire (2 week pause)August 31
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$1.9Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
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22 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The United States and Iran have agreed to extend a 60-day ceasefire, Anadolu reports, citing sources in the Pakistani government. The current agreement expires on August 17. According to the agency, the parties have not yet determined how long the ceasefire will be extended. Consultations on this issue are ongoing. Earlier, The Atlantic magazine wrote that the administration of US President Donald Trump has changed its approach to resolving the conflict with Iran and abandoned diplomatic steps and military action. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
Sources: Iran-US ceasefire to be extended
Donald Trump announced on Sunday, August 1, that attacks on Iranian infrastructure had been called off at the request of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Samira Qaraei, a correspondent for Iran International, discusses the reactions in the United States to US President Donald Trump's announcement of a halt to the war and the continuation of negotiations
Crude oil hits 3-week low after US declares ceasefire against Iran
Live: Today’s attacks, following a dayslong pause in strikes, are the latest in an on-again-off-again dynamic that has defined the war since the United States and Iran agreed a cease-fire in April. Here are the seesaws between fighting and fragile truce that have brought the two sides to this point.
The Associated Press reported that regional officials said on Monday that mediators had made progress in bringing the United States and the Islamic Republic back to the negotiating table. The development came after both sides halted attacks after a period of heightened tensions. However, sporadic attacks by armed groups in different parts of the region showed that tensions remained high. The report added that neither the United States nor the Islamic Republic had reported any attacks in the past three days, a pause after about two weeks of continuous attacks that had raised concerns about a return to full-scale war. The report cited two regional officials as saying that mediators led by Qatar and Pakistan were trying to bridge the gap between Washington and Tehran so that the two sides could return to a temporary ceasefire agreement that collapsed after the exchange of attacks.
Cautious calm prevails between the US and Iran. Tehran considers the ceasefire a "tactical retreat," Trump denies ammunition shortages, and China enters the mediation process.
Top Overnight News • • Iran will halt its own attacks as long as the United States does the same, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Sunday. The development comes as the United States pressed pause on its bombing campaign after President Donald Trump's advisers told him they were running out of targets and expressed worries about depleting the U.S. arsenal. RTRS • • A US appeals court refused the DOJ’s request to let federal officials move ahead with Trump’s mail-voting overhaul ahead of the November midterm elections. BBG • • DeepSeek is said to have told prospective investors it’s pausing a fundraising round, after comments widely attributed to its founder about US-China AI competition went viral. BBG • • CXMT jumped 466% in its Shanghai debut after the chipmaker raised $9.8 billion in its IPO, turning it into China’s largest onshore-listed company. BBG • • The ECB will have to raise interest rates at least one more time to ensure that inflation risks don’t spin out of control, Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said. BBG • • The Agriculture Department is lifting a more than yearlong ban on Mexican cattle imports, a move that could ease soaring beef prices. The U.S. plans to resume importing Mexican cattle at the port of entry in Douglas, Ariz., in 30 days and eventually open two additional ports of entry in New Mexico. • • Big Companies Are Starting to Hire Again, Defying Predictions of AI Wipeout. After a year of holding back on new hires, companies from tech and transportation to defense now say they need more people to work alongside AI. WSJ • • Employers fear labor shortage as many immigrants lose protected status. A recent Supreme Court ruling cleared the way for the Trump administration to end a humanitarian program that has allowed about 1 million immigrants to work illegally in the US. NYT • • Nvidia is in talks to provide a guarantee of as much as $250 billion to help OpenAI lease computing from a data center project in Ohio, people familiar said. BBG • • Mirroring the pre-election patterns in uncertainty, volatility, and investor flows, US equities have typically traded sideways in the few months ahead of midterms. US equity returns are generally modest during this part of the calendar year but have been weaker on average in midterm election years. During midterm election years of the past few decades, the S&P 500 has generated a median return of 0% from the start of August through Election Day. Returns have typically improved as uncertainty subsided post-election, with the S&P 500 returning a median of 6% in the subsequent 3 months. Goldman Research • • Sources say Bipartisan Senate talks over funding federal agencies past the 30th September deadline are trending in the right direction: Punchbowl
Live: US and Iran pause their attacks after days of escalation
A temporary hiatus to hostilities between the U.S. and Iran appeared to hold on Monday, but Iran denied media reports that it had agreed to a 10-day ceasefire. • • The U.S. military brought a halt to two weeks of strikes on Friday as diplomats sought to give peace talks “some space.” Iran, which has also refrained from military operations against regional targets in recent days, has said it will reciprocate following a China-led push to resume stalled diplomatic efforts in Pakistan. • • Read more:
Iran halts retaliatory attacks after US military ceases operations
Iran will suspend its attacks if the US maintains its pause in aggression. Tehran is conditioning the cessation on Washington maintaining the pause, but doubts its true intentions. Trump's advisors warned of the depletion of the arsenal. The Pentagon halted its bombing campaign after 13 nights of attacks on southern Iran. #Iran #USA #MiddleEast #Trump #teleSUR
Iran has halted retaliatory attacks; the US has suspended attacks from the 24th onward; and contact continues through mediating countries; could this lead to a de-escalation of tensions?
Negotiations are currently underway for a compromise on transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Associated Press: Washington and Tehran want to return to the ceasefire agreement. ===== The Associated Press reported that the United States and Iran want to return to the temporary ceasefire agreement. The agency reported that a compromise is currently being negotiated, centered on allowing Iran to allow shipping through the Strait of Hormuz while easing restrictions on vessels. The agency said that intensive diplomatic efforts are underway, considering the cessation of US strikes and Iranian retaliatory attacks on neighboring countries a positive sign that supports de-escalation efforts. #From_the_Event
IRAN TIES MILITARY PAUSE TO U.S. STRIKE SUSPENSION • • Iran will suspend its military operations as long as the United States maintains its pause in air strikes, a senior Iranian official told Reuters, following President Donald Trump’s decision to halt a two-week bombing campaign. • • After 13 consecutive nights of U.S. strikes, Washington has now gone two days without launching new attacks. Iran, which had responded to each wave of U.S. strikes by targeting neighbouring countries hosting American military bases, has also refrained from retaliatory operations during the same period. • • According to the Iranian official, Tehran’s position remains based on “attack for attack”: if U.S. military action resumes, Iran is prepared to launch a broad response. While Washington says the pause is intended to create space for diplomacy, Iranian officials remain deeply sceptical, describing the move as likely tactical rather than a genuine shift in U.S. policy. • • U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said Trump wants to give negotiations an opportunity, though no further details were provided. Meanwhile, reports from The New York Times, CNN and Axios suggest Trump halted planned strikes after advisers raised concerns over missile defence stockpiles and the risks of further escalation. • • The temporary lull comes as tensions remain high across the region, with the Houthis expanding attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and energy markets continuing to react to uncertainty surrounding the conflict.
A senior Iranian source told Reuters that the Islamic Republic will stop its attacks as long as the United States continues to halt its attacks, but Tehran remains skeptical of Washington's intentions.
"The Islamic Republic's position remains 'attack for attack'; if the attacks stop, Tehran will also stop its operations. This message has already been conveyed to the United States," the source told Reuters on Sunday, August 25.
The comments came a day after Washington halted its airstrikes after 13 consecutive nights.
"There is more pessimism than optimism about the cessation of attacks. The prevailing view is that this cessation is tactical, not real," the source added.
Iranian official tells Reuters: Iran will stop attacks as long as US upholds latest ceasefire, there is more skepticism than optimism [in Iran] following halt in US attacks on Iran
🇺🇸 Iran passed another night without US airstrikes on Sunday, as Washington paused a war nearing its fifth month and reports emerged that concerns over dwindling munitions were restraining plans for further escalation. • âž¡ï¸�
Trump has suspended nightly bombing of Iran after nearly two weeks of continuous attacks. Operations are "paused" as of the morning of July 25, a Pentagon source confirmed to CNN. A meeting was held at the White House, at which Vice President J.D. Vance and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Kaine expressed concern about the escalation of the conflict. Kane pointed out to Trump the depletion of American ammunition stockpiles. This factor was one of the key reasons for the pause in strikes. CNN sources note that few in Trump's circle or within the military department believe in the effectiveness of further escalation without the landing of ground troops. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
The Associated Press quoted “a regional official involved in mediation efforts” between Tehran and Washington as saying that diplomacy is underway and that the pause in U.S. attacks and the Islamic Republic’s retaliatory attacks on neighboring countries hosting U.S. forces is “a positive sign that will help efforts to reduce tensions.” He added that both the United States and the Islamic Republic want to return to the temporary ceasefire agreement. The official, who was not authorized to discuss the matter and spoke on condition of anonymity, said the compromise now being negotiated focuses on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz with fewer restrictions from Tehran.
After 13 nights of attacks, Trump ordered a halt to attacks on Iran on Friday night, to allow more space for talks – but the US military remains on alert for renewed fighting.
US-Iran ceasefire on the 10th may lead to renewed talks; opening the Strait of Hormuz also discussed... mediating country presents new ceasefire proposal
Where does the news lean?
60YES9NO6neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET).
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
A military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.
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