US x Iran Effective Ceasefire (2 week pause)August 14
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$1.6Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
21 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Crude oil hits 3-week low after US declares ceasefire against Iran
Live: Today’s attacks, following a dayslong pause in strikes, are the latest in an on-again-off-again dynamic that has defined the war since the United States and Iran agreed a cease-fire in April. Here are the seesaws between fighting and fragile truce that have brought the two sides to this point.
Cautious calm prevails between the US and Iran. Tehran considers the ceasefire a "tactical retreat," Trump denies ammunition shortages, and China enters the mediation process.
Top Overnight News • • Iran will halt its own attacks as long as the United States does the same, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Sunday. The development comes as the United States pressed pause on its bombing campaign after President Donald Trump's advisers told him they were running out of targets and expressed worries about depleting the U.S. arsenal. RTRS • • A US appeals court refused the DOJ’s request to let federal officials move ahead with Trump’s mail-voting overhaul ahead of the November midterm elections. BBG • • DeepSeek is said to have told prospective investors it’s pausing a fundraising round, after comments widely attributed to its founder about US-China AI competition went viral. BBG • • CXMT jumped 466% in its Shanghai debut after the chipmaker raised $9.8 billion in its IPO, turning it into China’s largest onshore-listed company. BBG • • The ECB will have to raise interest rates at least one more time to ensure that inflation risks don’t spin out of control, Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said. BBG • • The Agriculture Department is lifting a more than yearlong ban on Mexican cattle imports, a move that could ease soaring beef prices. The U.S. plans to resume importing Mexican cattle at the port of entry in Douglas, Ariz., in 30 days and eventually open two additional ports of entry in New Mexico. • • Big Companies Are Starting to Hire Again, Defying Predictions of AI Wipeout. After a year of holding back on new hires, companies from tech and transportation to defense now say they need more people to work alongside AI. WSJ • • Employers fear labor shortage as many immigrants lose protected status. A recent Supreme Court ruling cleared the way for the Trump administration to end a humanitarian program that has allowed about 1 million immigrants to work illegally in the US. NYT • • Nvidia is in talks to provide a guarantee of as much as $250 billion to help OpenAI lease computing from a data center project in Ohio, people familiar said. BBG • • Mirroring the pre-election patterns in uncertainty, volatility, and investor flows, US equities have typically traded sideways in the few months ahead of midterms. US equity returns are generally modest during this part of the calendar year but have been weaker on average in midterm election years. During midterm election years of the past few decades, the S&P 500 has generated a median return of 0% from the start of August through Election Day. Returns have typically improved as uncertainty subsided post-election, with the S&P 500 returning a median of 6% in the subsequent 3 months. Goldman Research • • Sources say Bipartisan Senate talks over funding federal agencies past the 30th September deadline are trending in the right direction: Punchbowl
A temporary hiatus to hostilities between the U.S. and Iran appeared to hold on Monday, but Iran denied media reports that it had agreed to a 10-day ceasefire. • • The U.S. military brought a halt to two weeks of strikes on Friday as diplomats sought to give peace talks “some space.” Iran, which has also refrained from military operations against regional targets in recent days, has said it will reciprocate following a China-led push to resume stalled diplomatic efforts in Pakistan. • • Read more:
Iran halts retaliatory attacks after US military ceases operations
Iran has halted retaliatory attacks; the US has suspended attacks from the 24th onward; and contact continues through mediating countries; could this lead to a de-escalation of tensions?
Attacks on Iran suspended for 13 consecutive days; President Trump's decision reportedly made on the advice of US military commanders, US reports say, "There's no point in continuing" as most of the targets have been achieved.
Negotiations are currently underway for a compromise on transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Associated Press: Washington and Tehran want to return to the ceasefire agreement. ===== The Associated Press reported that the United States and Iran want to return to the temporary ceasefire agreement. The agency reported that a compromise is currently being negotiated, centered on allowing Iran to allow shipping through the Strait of Hormuz while easing restrictions on vessels. The agency said that intensive diplomatic efforts are underway, considering the cessation of US strikes and Iranian retaliatory attacks on neighboring countries a positive sign that supports de-escalation efforts. #From_the_Event
US airstrikes on Iran halt after 13 days... A brief truce or the start of serious negotiations?
Tit-For-Tat Strikes On Hold As Iran Signals Reciprocal Pause If US Continues Stand-Down: Report
IRAN TIES MILITARY PAUSE TO U.S. STRIKE SUSPENSION • • Iran will suspend its military operations as long as the United States maintains its pause in air strikes, a senior Iranian official told Reuters, following President Donald Trump’s decision to halt a two-week bombing campaign. • • After 13 consecutive nights of U.S. strikes, Washington has now gone two days without launching new attacks. Iran, which had responded to each wave of U.S. strikes by targeting neighbouring countries hosting American military bases, has also refrained from retaliatory operations during the same period. • • According to the Iranian official, Tehran’s position remains based on “attack for attack”: if U.S. military action resumes, Iran is prepared to launch a broad response. While Washington says the pause is intended to create space for diplomacy, Iranian officials remain deeply sceptical, describing the move as likely tactical rather than a genuine shift in U.S. policy. • • U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said Trump wants to give negotiations an opportunity, though no further details were provided. Meanwhile, reports from The New York Times, CNN and Axios suggest Trump halted planned strikes after advisers raised concerns over missile defence stockpiles and the risks of further escalation. • • The temporary lull comes as tensions remain high across the region, with the Houthis expanding attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and energy markets continuing to react to uncertainty surrounding the conflict.
A senior Iranian source told Reuters that the Islamic Republic will stop its attacks as long as the United States continues to halt its attacks, but Tehran remains skeptical of Washington's intentions.
"The Islamic Republic's position remains 'attack for attack'; if the attacks stop, Tehran will also stop its operations. This message has already been conveyed to the United States," the source told Reuters on Sunday, August 25.
The comments came a day after Washington halted its airstrikes after 13 consecutive nights.
"There is more pessimism than optimism about the cessation of attacks. The prevailing view is that this cessation is tactical, not real," the source added.
The US military has suspended airstrikes on Iran for the 13th consecutive day, citing concerns about depletion of air defense missiles and other resources, and has decided to postpone them for the time being.
U.S.-Iran War Pauses for 2nd Straight Day
🇺🇸 Iran passed another night without US airstrikes on Sunday, as Washington paused a war nearing its fifth month and reports emerged that concerns over dwindling munitions were restraining plans for further escalation. • âž¡ï¸�
US holds fire against Iran as reports emerge of stockpile concerns
After 13 nights of attacks, Trump ordered a halt to attacks on Iran on Friday night, to allow more space for talks – but the US military remains on alert for renewed fighting.
Axios reported, citing two sources familiar with the matter, that Trump ordered the US military on Friday not to launch any new strikes on Iran, halting daily strikes for about two weeks. According to the report, it is not yet clear whether the decision was just for one day or whether the halt in attacks will continue.
After 12 days of continuous strikes, does the halt in airstrikes on Iran last night reflect a shift in the American position?
Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal, The New York Times (NYT) reported, citing sources. The newspaper's sources said Iran is not interested in a temporary deal with Washington that does not resolve the issue of control of the Strait of Hormuz. US strikes on Iran continued for the 13th consecutive night today. Follow Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram
Where does the news lean?
48YES10NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET).
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
A military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.
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