US x Iran Effective Ceasefire (2 week pause)July 31

ResolvedOutcome: YesVol$8.9MResolvedas of

Odds now

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

15 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

NOcnbc95%match45¢-100%
A temporary hiatus to hostilities between the U.S. and Iran appeared to hold on Monday, but Iran denied media reports that it had agreed to a 10-day ceasefire. • • The U.S. military brought a halt to two weeks of strikes on Friday as diplomats sought to give peace talks “some space.” Iran, which has also refrained from military operations against regional targets in recent days, has said it will reciprocate following a China-led push to resume stalled diplomatic efforts in Pakistan. • • Read more:
NOReuters Reporter96%match51¢-100%
DUBAI/WASHINGTON, July 26 (Reuters) - Iran will halt its own attacks as long as the United States maintains its latest pause on air strikes, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Sunday, after President Donald Trump abruptly called off ‌his two-week-old bombing campaign.
NORussian Media94%match60¢-100%
Trump has suspended nightly bombing of Iran after nearly two weeks of continuous attacks. Operations are "paused" as of the morning of July 25, a Pentagon source confirmed to CNN. A meeting was held at the White House, at which Vice President J.D. Vance and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Kaine expressed concern about the escalation of the conflict. Kane pointed out to Trump the depletion of American ammunition stockpiles. This factor was one of the key reasons for the pause in strikes. CNN sources note that few in Trump's circle or within the military department believe in the effectiveness of further escalation without the landing of ground troops. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
NORussian Media93%match64¢-100%
Donald Trump ordered a halt to strikes on Iran, Axios reports. In early July, the United States accused Iran of shelling commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and resumed strikes on the country. They continued every night. On the night of July 25, the United States did not attack Iran for the first time in two weeks. The publication's sources suggest that Mr. Trump's decision either indicates his desire to give negotiations another chance or that the strikes have reached the limit of their effectiveness at this stage. Subscribe to Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram
YESRussian Media91%match37¢+170%
US President Donald Trump ordered no new strikes on Iran on Friday, July 25, ending a nearly two-week streak of daily attacks, Axios reported, citing two sources familiar with the American leader's decision. According to the publication, over the previous 13 days, Trump had approved strike plans daily, which the military carried out within hours. On Friday, the president received a similar plan, but did not give the green light, instead ordering no strikes. Trump's decision, as Axios notes, reflects both his willingness to allow more space for diplomacy and his recognition that the current level of US strikes has reached the limits of their effectiveness. RBK Channel on "Max" RBK app for iOS and Android
NORussian Media92%match84¢-100%
Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal, The New York Times (NYT) reported, citing sources. The newspaper's sources said Iran is not interested in a temporary deal with Washington that does not resolve the issue of control of the Strait of Hormuz. US strikes on Iran continued for the 13th consecutive night today. Follow Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram
NOMedia Adviser to Bahrain’s King92%match84¢-100%
The 12th round: The US military announces the end of the latest wave of strikes on Iran. The strikes targeted military sites, including naval capabilities and missile and drone storage facilities. US Central Command announced on Thursday the end of the 12th round of ongoing military strikes against Iran, which targeted Iranian military sites and capabilities. A CENTCOM statement read, "At 10:30 PM Eastern Time on July 22, US Central Command forces completed another round of strikes against Iran, marking the twelfth consecutive night of such strikes."
NOIran State News Agency92%match87¢-100%
The US Aggressive Army Announces End of 12th Consecutive Night of Attacks on Iran The US Aggressive Army announced that its aggressive attacks on Iranian soil have ended for the 12th consecutive night. According to IRNA, the US Central Command announced on Wednesday night local time: At 10:30 PM Eastern Time on July 22 (6:00 AM on Thursday, July 1, Tehran time), US forces ended a new round of attacks against Iran for the 12th consecutive night. This US military institution claimed: In this round of attacks, military targets including naval capabilities, missile and drone storage centers, coastal surveillance sites, and Iranian air defense systems have been targeted. These attacks are aimed at reducing Iran's ability to attack civilian seafarers and commercial vessels. @IRNA_1313
NORussian Media94%match81¢-100%
Mediators presented the US and Iran with a proposal for a ten-day ceasefire, Axios reports, citing sources. "Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan and other regional mediators presented the US and Iran with a proposal for a ten-day ceasefire," the report says. It is noted that "the Donald Trump administration is studying the proposal and has called on Israel to avoid steps that could close the window for diplomacy." "However, at the same time, Washington is preparing for the possible failure of the talks. In recent days, the US military has transferred dozens of fighter jets and tanker aircraft to the region, concentrating the forces necessary for a serious escalation," Axios states. More news from IZ RU in MAX [in reply to: The IRGC destroyed a US radar installation and a Patriot air defense system in Bahrain with missile and UAV strikes, Press TV reports. Earlier, the IRGC claimed to have struck HIMARS systems at a US base in Kuwait. As a reminder, Axios, citing an American official, reported that negotiations between the US and Iran are ongoing, but Washington intends to carry out strikes as long as Donald Trump deems it necessary. At the same time, the US has launched a new wave of attacks on targets in Iran. UPD: US forces have completed another round of strikes on Iran, CENTCOM reported. More IZ RU news in MAX]
NOAxios Reporter95%match83¢-100%
Mediators push for new ceasefire, but Trump considers return to full-scale war President Trump is approaching a crucial crossroads in the war with Iran, with senior American and Israeli officials claiming that he has only two realistic options: promoting a new 10-day ceasefire, designed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Or: launching a new, large-scale military campaign together with Israel, with the aim of forcing Tehran to surrender. Why is this important: Trump has not yet made a decision. However, those familiar with the details believe that the coming days will determine which path he chooses, with only limited room for maneuver left to continue the ongoing and undecided war that currently paralyzes the Gulf region. In the news center: Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan and other regional mediators have presented the United States and Iran with a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire, two regional sources with direct knowledge of the effort said. According to senior American officials, the Trump administration is reviewing the proposal and does not want Israel to take any steps at this time that could close the diplomatic window of opportunity. But that could change quickly if Trump decides he is not interested in a ceasefire. At the same time, Washington is also preparing for the possibility that the talks will fail. The US military has sent dozens of fighter jets and refueling planes to the region in recent days, thus mobilizing the forces needed for a significant military escalation. Israeli sources say that the IDF is on high alert and preparing for a scenario of expanding the fighting to a full, coordinated campaign within days. The big picture: Ten consecutive nights of American bombing failed to break Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz, deepening Trump's involvement in a war that he himself repeatedly declared he had already won. At least three American soldiers have been killed since the fighting resumed. Trump said Monday he had ordered the Pentagon to make Iran "pay many times over" for every American soldier killed. Oil prices briefly crossed $90 a barrel over the weekend after Iran expanded its attacks on merchant ships and infrastructure in the Gulf. U.S. gas prices also rose again, fueling public criticism of an already unpopular war. focusing on: Regional mediators are once again trying to stem the cycle of escalation, which is becoming more deadly, costly, and harder to contain with each additional attack. The new ceasefire proposal includes: a 10-day cessation of fighting, the opening of both shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, and the creation of a calm that will allow Washington and Tehran to save the crumbling Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). "We told the United States and Iran that we are offering a cooling-off period," said one of the regional sources. Snapshot: At this point, neither Trump nor Iran has agreed to the offer, and both sides are still trying to improve their bargaining position through additional strikes before agreeing to a ceasefire. Meanwhile, the Houthis in Yemen, who are supported by Iran, have declared a naval blockade of Saudi ports, thus opening another front against energy infrastructure and shipping lanes in the region. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned that Israel will respond to any Iranian attack with massive strikes, increasing the risk of the war expanding from the Gulf to the Red Sea and Israel. behind the scenes: According to regional sources, the mediators are trying to build on a proposal discussed on July 11 in Muscat between Oman, Iran, and Qatar, during which the United States demanded that Iran publicly commit to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. The talks ended without an agreement, and shortly thereafter Iran attacked merchant ships in the Strait - which led to the start of the American bombing campaign, which has continued every night since. According to the proposal: Both shipping lanes in the Strait will be fully reopened. The southern lane, which passes through Omani territorial waters, will be free from Iranian attacks, the northern lane, which passes through Iranian territorial waters, will be free from the American blockade. During the ten-day ceasefire, the United States and Iran will negotiate a long-term arrangement to regulate passage through the Strait. One option would allow Iran and Oman to charge "reasonable service fees" for shipping security, environmental protection and other services, according to one of the sources. The same source pointed to the Strait of Malacca model, in which Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore charge for certain services, but do not impose a general transit fee. Another idea is that the funds will be channeled into a joint fund to be managed with the participation of the International Maritime Organization (IMO). Among the parties involved in the mediation: Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Qatari envoy Ali Al-Thawadi, Pakistani Army Commander Field Marshal Asim Munir, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdel-Ati, and Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al-Busaidi. between the lines: A regional source said ceasefire efforts gained momentum on Saturday but stalled after an Iranian missile strike in Jordan killed at least two American soldiers, prompting Washington to temporarily withdraw from the talks. A senior American official confirmed that the talks are continuing, but said that Trump has not yet finished responding to the killing of American soldiers. “The president is focused on making Iran pay for violating the memorandum of understanding and continuing its terrorist activities in the Strait of Hormuz,” the US official said. “The president will also make Iran pay for the killing of American soldiers. These devastating blows will continue until the president decides otherwise.” What they say: Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaie confirmed on Monday that mediators are working to prevent further escalation. "The offers that were submitted through the intermediaries were accepted by us, but at this stage I prefer not to go into their details," he said at a press conference. He added that Iran's armed forces will continue to "respond forcefully and strike at the source of American aggression." Why to pay attention: It is unclear whether Trump received a full briefing on the ceasefire outline, or whether he would be willing to agree to another temporary ceasefire without a clear path to a permanent agreement. Since the collapse of the ceasefire, Trump has expressed deep frustration with Tehran, calling its leaders "sick people" and saying that continuing negotiations is a "waste of time." A regional source said the White House may continue bombing Iran for a few more days to avenge the deaths of American soldiers in Jordan, before seriously considering the proposal. The bottom line: “We are trying to formulate a sustainable solution,” said one regional source. “The Iranians cannot dictate the terms, but they cannot be ignored either.”
NOnytimes.com91%match81¢-100%
Live: The United States launched new strikes against Iran on Monday afternoon “at the Commander in Chief’s direction,” U.S. Central Command said in a social media post. Iran and the United States have traded strikes every day since July 11.
YESnews.tv-asahi.co.jp92%match22¢+355%
US-Iran ceasefire on the 10th may lead to renewed talks; opening the Strait of Hormuz also discussed... mediating country presents new ceasefire proposal
NOMedia Adviser to Bahrain’s King92%match84¢-100%
The US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced on Sunday the conclusion of a new round of airstrikes against Iran on July 18 at 11:30 PM Eastern Time, in accordance with the directives of US President Donald Trump. CENTCOM stated, "We completed another wave of attacks on Iran on July 18 at 11:30 PM Eastern Time."
NONewsNation Reporter92%match77¢-100%
CENTCOM: U.S. forces ended the seventh consecutive night of strikes against Iran on July 17 at 9:30 p.m. ET. • • U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) hit surveillance sites, military logistics infrastructure, underground weapons storage, and maritime capabilities. U.S. forces employed fighter aircraft, aerial drones, and warships in addition to other assets.
US Terrorist Army Claims End to New Round of Attacks on Iran The terrorist organization "US Central Command" (CENTCOM) announced that the country's new wave of airstrikes against Iran ended at 9:00 PM on July 15, Eastern Time (4:30 AM Tehran Time). CENTCOM claimed that these attacks targeted Iranian command centers, air defense positions, missile and drone systems, as well as coastal control and monitoring facilities. CENTCOM also claimed that precision-guided munitions were used in these operations to target positions in several regions, including Bandar Abbas. @Defapress_ir

Where does the news lean?

15YES20NO4neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.

How did this market resolve?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.

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