US reissues Iran oil sales sanction reliefOctober 31
Open$30Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 8% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES8¢
NO93¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
The US Treasury imposes sanctions on 6 individuals, 27 companies, and 22 vessels transporting billions of dollars' worth of oil for Iran. US Treasury: New sanctions related to Iran Sanctions target vessels transporting billions of dollars' worth of oil for Iran Sanctions target 6 individuals, 27 companies, and 22 vessels linked to Iran Estimates indicate that Iran holds up to 20 million barrels of oil on board ships Iran halted loading and unloading of oil tankers due to the embargo
Washington Expands Sanctions on Iran's Petrochemical Sector On Thursday, the United States announced expanded sanctions on individuals and entities, as well as vessels involved in the transportation of Iranian oil. According to a press release from the US Treasury Department, "The US Treasury Department has targeted the remnants of Iran's shadow fleet. The Treasury Department is depriving Tehran of the funds it uses to wage war in the region. We will continue to expose those who facilitate the sale of Iranian oil."
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The US Treasury imposes sanctions on 6 individuals, 27 companies, and 22 vessels transporting billions of dollars' worth of oil for Iran. The US Treasury announces new sanctions related to Iran. The US Treasury stated that the sanctions target vessels transporting billions of dollars' worth of oil for Iran. The US Treasury said the sanctions target 6 individuals, 27 companies, and 22 vessels linked to Iran. The US Treasury explained that estimates indicate Iran is holding up to 20 million barrels of oil on board ships. The US Treasury reported that Iran has halted loading and unloading oil tankers due to the embargo.
Iran could see zero oil revenues by mid-October as the US plans to increase economic pressure.
Where does the news lean?
0YES9NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 78% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
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