US reissues Iran oil sales sanction reliefSeptember 30
ResolvedOutcome: No$56Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The anniversary of the 9/11 attacks postpones a major US announcement... Sanctions against a large bank linked to Iran are set for Monday. ====== The US Treasury Secretary announces the Trump administration's intention to impose economic sanctions on a major bank next week. Bisent said the measure aims to continue financial pressure on Iran to end the conflict that has been ongoing for more than six months. Bisent did not reveal the name of the financial institution or the country it belongs to, indicating that the move will take place on Monday. The US postponed the announcement of the sanctions, which was scheduled for Friday, out of consideration for the anniversary of the bloody September 11 attacks.
The US Treasury Department announced on Thursday, September 10, a set of new sanctions against individuals and entities in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates that are “associated with the Islamic Republic of Iran, Hezbollah of Lebanon and Kataib Hezbollah.” The US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, OFAC, added the names of 14 individuals and five entities to its list of individuals and entities subject to sanctions. A number of those sanctioned are Iraqi citizens associated with companies in the country or Kata'ib Hezbollah. Shams and Bahr Company in Dubai, Ain Al-Iraq and Al-Buruj Companies in Baghdad, and two financial institutions in Lebanon are among the entities targeted in this round of sanctions. The US Treasury Department also changed its policy on issuing licenses related to Iran, announcing that new applications will be considered as rejected, except in cases of legal obligation or circumstances such as danger to life and environmental safety.
US Treasury Secretary: The lifeline for Iranian oil exports is cut off... No shipments have passed through the Strait of Hormuz to China since we reimposed sanctions. ======
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bisent: The lifeline for Iranian oil exports is cut off. No Iranian oil shipments have passed through the Strait of Hormuz to China since we reimposed sanctions. We will strangle the Iranian economy. Iranian oil revenues are rapidly dwindling. Iran cannot replenish its oil reserves as it piles up on its ships stranded in Hormuz.
In an interview with the Real America Voice network, US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant said that the Islamic Republic has not been able to export any oil for the past month and a half and that Tehran is now “neither exporting nor importing anything.” He said that the only shipments that have left Iran during this period were sent to China after the signing of the memorandum of understanding and with the opportunity that the US gave Tehran. Besant added that the US will take action in this regard on Tuesday, September 8, but did not provide further details. The US Treasury Secretary said that Washington intends to “suffocate the Islamic Republic economically,” referring to the devaluation of Iran’s currency. He described the Iranian government’s economic situation as being in the “jaws of economic death” and said: “They will capitulate.” Besant added that US allies in the Persian Gulf and Europe support this policy and the number of countries joining it is increasing. He added that another bank would likely be sanctioned next week, and addressed the financial institutions, saying: "We know the offending actors. You know who you are. It's over."
YESReuters92%match8¢-100%
U.S. Issues Iran-Related General License -U.S. Treasury Website
Top Overnight News • • Iran and the United States traded attacks for the first time in over a month overnight into Monday. Iran fired missiles toward US military targets in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates in retaliation for a strike on Iranian rocket launchers that the US said were trying to launch sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz. The exchange of strikes came just days after President Donald Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz free from mines and is a break with Washington’s recent shift in focus to maximizing economic pressure on Iran rather than military actions. CNN • • Iranian leaders are acknowledging the economic toll of war with the U.S., with the supreme leader urging the government to address the hardship and the president saying foreign trade has shrunk by a third due to the American sanctions and blockade. Yet Tehran signaled no retreat on Saturday, vowing to withstand U.S. pressure, pursue diplomacy and maintain what it said was control over the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters • • President Donal Trump said Friday night the United States has reached an oil agreement with Venezuela, a move he said will “more than double” American oil reserves, increase oil supply and lower gas prices. The deal is said to “secure majority control” of more than 65B barrels worth of oil reserves in Venezuela, or ~20% of the country’s total. CNN / FT • • U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday he will encourage G20 members to re-examine terms of trade with China to shrink global imbalances and press Beijing to rebalance its economy away from exports and toward domestic consumption. Bessent said in an interview ahead of a G20 finance leaders meeting that the current flood of exports from China was unsustainable, even though the U.S. direct trade position with China was "rapidly improving." Reuters • • China’s official manufacturing PMI remained in contraction in August, suggesting that momentum has yet to rebound after July’s sharp downturn. BBG • • SK Hynix is exploring a joint venture to make memory chips in Japan to meet surging AI demand, Chairman Chey Tae-won said. BBG • • South Korea’s industrial production for Jul came in ahead of expectations at +0.2% M/M (vs. the Street -0.5%). BBG • • Russia’s Defense Ministry said it is planning “massive strikes” on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, days after launching a devastating attack on a warehouse near Kyiv, amplifying fears of another winter assault. CNBC • • September is historically the worst month for Wall St, and traders are preparing for volatility during the coming weeks, with the FOMC meeting on 9/16 potentially a major catalyst. Barron’s
Where does the news lean?
2YES15NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
How did this market resolve?
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
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