US reissues Iran oil sales sanction reliefAugust 31
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The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
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What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
United States of America: US Treasury statement: Suspension of general licenses that allowed certain financial transfers to Iran
US Treasury: Suspension of general licenses that allowed some financial transfers to Iran
US Treasury: Suspension of general licenses that allowed some financial transfers to Iran
Reuters reported, citing a source familiar with the matter, that the US Treasury Department is expected to expand the scope of secondary sanctions it can impose on entities and countries that trade with the Islamic Republic, a move the Trump administration is planning to increase economic pressure on Tehran. The move is intended to give countries a final warning to cut off trade with the Islamic Republic in order to end a nearly six-month standoff that has disrupted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and energy exports from the Persian Gulf, according to a source familiar with the plan.
OIL SLIPS AHEAD OF TOUGH NEW IRAN SANCTIONS • • Oil prices fell Monday as traders took profits and awaited new US sanctions on Iran. • • Brent dropped 1.2% to $93.23, while WTI fell 1.8% to $85.51. • • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to announce details at 1 PM EDT, with tougher measures potentially restricting Middle East oil supplies further. • • Despite tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, current prices suggest enough oil is still reaching global markets.
US to announce new economic sanctions, claims "final phase" against Iran
Reuters: Oil prices fall 1% ahead of US announcement of additional sanctions on Iran
Oil falls 1% ahead of US announcement to impose further sanctions on Iran
The United States imposes "unprecedented" sanctions on Iran... but what's the story with the Chinese "teapots"? The United States is preparing to impose a package of sanctions against Iran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bisent described the new sanctions as "unprecedented" and they include targeting Chinese refineries and banks. The new sanctions target the Iranian oil fleet, known as the "shadow fleet," and extend beyond it to include marine insurance companies, individuals, entities, and digital asset platforms. The US measures aim to pressure the Chinese refineries known as "teapots," which account for about a quarter of China's refining capacity. #From_the_Event
The US Treasury Department announces the lifting of sanctions related to Iran ====== The US Treasury Department has decided to lift sanctions related to Iran, according to Reuters. It did not disclose the nature of the lifted sanctions or the entities that were subject to them. From the event:
Reuters claimed: The US Treasury Department announced that it would lift some sanctions related to Iran.
Reuters: The US Treasury Department announces the lifting of sanctions related to Iran.
US Treasury Department: The United States is lifting sanctions related to Iran.
US Treasury Department: Lifting sanctions related to Iran
Reuters: US Treasury Department announces lifting of Iran-related sanctions
US Treasury Department: Lifting sanctions related to Iran
Reuters: The US Treasury Department announces the lifting of sanctions related to Iran.
Trump: We will reimpose sanctions on Iran
Trump: We are reimposing sanctions on Iran.
Trump: We will reimpose sanctions on Iran
Where does the news lean?
18YES39NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
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