Sudan civil war ceasefireDecember 31, 2026
Open$15Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 10% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES10¢
NO90¢
as of
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Fears of a massacre in this city on the front line of Sudan's war
A Sudanese human rights organization reported on Tuesday that 15 civilians were killed in two drone attacks in North Kordofan state on Monday and Tuesday. Sudanese authorities and human rights groups accuse the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of targeting civilian infrastructure, while the RSF has not commented on these accusations. [
Sudan drone strikes on vehicles kill 15 civilians: rights group
ALERT: Sudan drone strikes on civilian vehicles kill 15: rights group
The United Nations condemns the escalating violence perpetrated by the Rapid Support Forces in the Sudanese city of El Obeid. The UN warns of an imminent risk of atrocities in El Obeid, Sudan.
The Sudanese army inflicts military losses on the Rapid Support Forces, and the militias' behavior against civilians raises humanitarian concerns. An interactive map of the fighting axes around the city of El Obeid:
The Sudanese army inflicts military losses on the Rapid Support Forces, and the militias' behavior against civilians raises humanitarian concerns. An interactive map of the fighting axes around the city of El Obeid:
Mosaad Boulos told Al Jazeera: We are in constant contact with both sides of the war in Sudan and we hear reassuring words, but the reality on the ground is different.
Where does the news lean?
5YES12NO22neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
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