Sudan civil war ceasefireJune 30, 2026
ResolvedOutcome: No$45Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
31 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The Sudanese army inflicts military losses on the Rapid Support Forces, and the militias' behavior against civilians raises humanitarian concerns. An interactive map of the fighting axes around the city of El Obeid:
Mosaad Boulos told Al Jazeera: We are in constant contact with both sides of the war in Sudan and we hear reassuring words, but the reality on the ground is different.
Sudan army strike on Darfur camp kills 6: rights group
A truce on the brink of collapse: A return to negotiations or a slide back towards war? | Report by: Abdulhamid Al-Gharbani
NOFirst Squawk98%match81¢+23%
STATEMENT OF THE FOREIGN MINISTERS OF THE SUDAN CORE GROUP AT THE HUMAN RIGHTS’ COUNCIL: GERMANY, IRELAND, THE NETHERLANDS, NORWAY, AND THE UNITED KINGDOM – CONCLUDES THAT RSF LED VIOLENCE IN EL FASHER CONSTITUTES WAR CRIMES
NOCGTN Europe98%match81¢+23%
STATEMENT OF THE FOREIGN MINISTERS OF THE SUDAN CORE GROUP AT THE HUMAN RIGHTS’ COUNCIL – GERMANY, IRELAND, THE NETHERLANDS, NORWAY, AND THE UNITED KINGDOM – CONCLUDES THAT RSF LED VIOLENCE IN EL FASHER CONSTITUTES WAR CRIMES.
NOCGTN Europe98%match81¢+23%
STATEMENT OF THE FOREIGN MINISTERS OF THE SUDAN CORE GROUP AT THE HUMAN RIGHTS’ COUNCIL – GERMANY, IRELAND, THE NETHERLANDS, NORWAY, AND THE UNITED KINGDOM – CONCLUDES THAT RSF LED VIOLENCE IN EL FASHER CONSTITUTES WAR CRIMES
NOAl Jazeera English98%match81¢+23%
The UN Security Council (UNSC) has expressed “deep concern” over escalating violence across war-torn Sudan, including in Darfur and Kordofan states, calling for an immediate end to the fighting. :
NOAl Jazeera English98%match77¢+30%
A UN fact-finding body says mass killings by Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in El Fasher carry the hallmarks of genocide, with thousands reported killed. Al Jazeera’s @hiba_morgan breaks down the findings, which accuse the RSF of rape, torture, and extortion.
NOUnited Nations98%match77¢+30%
Nearly 3 years into #Sudan’s war – over 1,000 days of relentless violence – civilians are paying the price. We urge those with influence to:
• Respect international humanitarian law
• Protect aid workers
• Press for an immediate end to the fighting
NOReuters98%match77¢+30%
RSF's actions in capturing the Sudanese city of al‑Fashir bears hallmarks that point to genocide, an independent UN probe said in a new report
NOUnited Nations98%match77¢+30%
“No corner of Sudan is safe from the threat of attack.” @UNDPPA chief @DicarloRosemary says the UN will continue to make every effort to help end Sudan’s devastating conflict, urging immediate action to prevent atrocities from spreading further.
NOFirst Squawk98%match75¢+33%
Sudanese Prime Minister: Our country is being attacked by mercenaries, and this will threaten the Horn of Africa.
NOUnited Nations99%match75¢+33%
Sudan: Attacks by Rapid Support Forces during capture of El Fasher amount to war crimes & possible crimes against humanity, according to new @UNHumanRights report documenting mass killings, abductions, summary executions & other violations.
NOStatus-6 (War & Military News)99%match69¢+45%
"Eight sources, including a senior Ethiopian government official, said the UAE financed the [RSF] camp’s construction & provided military trainers & logistical support to the site" On Abu Dhabi’s effort to start an offensive on Blue Nile state in Sudan.
NOReuters99%match69¢+45%
Ethiopia builds secret camp to train Sudan RSF fighters, sources say
NOReuters99%match69¢+45%
Ethiopia is hosting a secret camp to train thousands of fighters for the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group in neighboring Sudan, Reuters reporting has found, in the latest sign that one of the world’s deadliest conflicts is sucking in regional powers from Africa and the…
NOCGTN Europe99%match69¢+45%
Escalating violence in South Sudan risks pushing one million more into starvation, according to a new hunger report released by Oxfam. Since December, more than 280,000 people have fled their homes due to renewed fighting across Sudan, many seeking shelter in overcrowded…
NOCGTN America99%match69¢+45%
Three deadly attacks on health centres in Sudan's South Kordofan in past week: WHO
NOFirst Squawk99%match69¢+45%
SUDANESE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS: STOPPING THE WAR WILL BE ACHIEVED BY DISMANTLING ITS SOURCES AND HOLDING ACCOUNTABLE THOSE WHO COMMITTED VIOLATIONS AND THOSE WHO BREACHED INTERNATIONAL HUMANITARIAN LAW.
NOFirst Squawk99%match69¢+45%
SUDANESE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS: WE DO NOT ACCEPT THAT THOSE WHO SUPPORT THE PERPETRATORS OF CRIMES AND REMAIN SILENT ABOUT THEM BECOME PARTNERS IN ANY PROJECT TO END THE WAR.
NOFirst Squawk99%match69¢+45%
SUDANESE FOREIGN MINISTRY: WE WILL NOT ACCEPT THAT PARTNERS OF CRIME PERPETRATORS BECOME PARTNERS IN THE PROJECT TO END THE WAR
NOFirst Squawk98%match69¢+45%
SUDANESE FOREIGN MINISTRY: THE GOVERNMENT REJECTS EXTERNAL SOLUTIONS
NOFirst Squawk99%match69¢+45%
SUDANESE FOREIGN MINISTRY CONDEMNS THE INTERNATIONAL SILENCE REGARDING THE "WAR CRIMES" COMMITTED BY THE RAPID SUPPORT FORCES
NOFirst Squawk99%match68¢+47%
SUDAN DOCTORS NETWORK: THE RAPID SUPPORT FORCES HAVE INTENSIFIED THEIR ATTACKS ON HEALTH AND RELIEF FACILITIES
NOFirst Squawk98%match70¢+43%
UN COORDINATOR CONFIRMS THE TARGETING OF A WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME AID CONVOY IN NORTH KORDOFAN YESTERDAY
NOFirst Squawk99%match70¢+43%
UN COORDINATOR: KILLED AND WOUNDED IN ATTACK ON FOOD AID CONVOY IN NORTH KORDOFAN, SUDAN
NOFirst Squawk98%match70¢+43%
THE RELIEF CONVOY TARGETED BY THE RAPID SUPPORT FORCES, IN WHICH 24 SUDANESE WERE KILLED IN NORTH KORDOFAN
NOReuters99%match67¢+49%
UK sanctions Sudanese army and paramilitary leaders over ongoing conflict
NOReuters99%match69¢+45%
UK sanctions Sudanese army and paramilitary leaders over ongoing conflict
NOCGTN Europe99%match70¢+43%
Sudanese AF: ‘Chairman of the Sovereignty Council and Commander-in-Chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces: Victory is Near, Defeat of the Traitors and Elimination of the Rebellion’
Where does the news lean?
7YES60NO7neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
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