Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Odds jumped to 55% on Jul 10, 2026

OpenMove

Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026? On , the market’s odds jumped from 37¢ to 54.5¢ (+17.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from alarabiya.

How did the odds move?

At match37¢
+5m38¢
+30m57¢
+1h54.5¢
+24h35¢
1h move+17.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 10, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 58¢ → 45.5¢-12.5 ptsafter a signal from alhadath

What moved the odds?

Yesalarabiya99%match
An immediate 90-day ceasefire and the establishment of a coordination committee to oversee it... Al-Arabiya sources: The Sudanese government agrees to 5 points of the American proposal but has reservations about the military redeployment.

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 10% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES10¢
NO90¢

Vol$15K

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Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Sudan civil war ceasefire — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.