Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
ResolvedOutcome: No$44.1Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
24 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Cosmo crude oil tanker passes through the Strait of Hormuz, returning to port in mid-July; normalization remains uncertain
Citi Expects Oil To Sink To $60 As Hormuz Traffic Normalizes
Bloomberg reports on shipping data: Oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are recovering after a sharp decline, but the threat remains significant, especially with the mining of the central shipping lane.
Shipping companies are cautiously avoiding the Strait of Hormuz... Ship congestion and rescheduling are delaying the return to normal traffic.
Mines, ship congestion, and prioritizing transit are hindering the return of maritime navigation to normal in the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping and insurance companies are awaiting a long-term lull.
Shipping companies are conditioning their return to the Strait of Hormuz on security guarantees, and it is expected to take several months to restore normal shipping traffic and overcome the effects of the closure.
Mines, ship congestion, and prioritizing transit are hindering the return of maritime navigation to normal in the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping and insurance companies are awaiting a long-term lull.
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz drops to near-zero
Why the Strait of Hormuz will take a long time to reboot
World Bank: Strait of Hormuz traffic will not normalize until late 2026 • •
France says the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains dangerous after a CGM vessel was targeted.
French government spokesperson: The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains dangerous.
Prediction markets give less than even odds on Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by June
CMA CGM ship hit in the Strait of Hormuz: "France was in no way the target," says Maud Bregeon, government spokesperson
CMA CGM ship hit in the Strait of Hormuz: "France was in no way the target," declares Maud Bregeon, government spokesperson
The French government: The attack on a CMA CGM vessel in the Strait of Hormuz shows that the situation remains dangerous.
Transit volumes through the Strait of Hormuz continue to drop amid escalating security concerns
Bloomberg reports, citing shipping data: Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is almost nonexistent.
World Bank: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will not return to normal until the end of 2026 The World Bank predicted that the average price of goods in the world will increase by 16% this year following the war against Iran. Energy prices are likely to rise by 24% this year, reaching their highest level since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 35 percent of the world's seaborne crude oil trade, have caused the largest oil supply shock in history. The World Bank has predicted that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-war levels until late 2026.
World Bank: Strait of Hormuz traffic will not return to normal until the end of 2026 The World Bank predicted that the average price of goods in the world will increase by 16% this year following the war against Iran. Energy prices are likely to rise by 24% this year, reaching their highest level since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 35 percent of the world's seaborne crude oil trade, have caused the largest oil supply shock in history. The World Bank has predicted that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-war levels until late 2026. Mean on social networks @mizanplus
World Bank: Strait of Hormuz traffic will not return to normal until the end of 2026 The World Bank predicted that the average price of goods in the world will increase by 16% this year following the war against Iran. Energy prices are likely to rise by 24% this year, reaching their highest level since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 35 percent of the world's seaborne crude oil trade, have caused the largest oil supply shock in history. The World Bank has predicted that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-war levels until late 2026. @TasnimNews
Crew members of French cargo ship injured after attack in Strait of Hormuz
Captain of stranded ship in Strait of Hormuz tells BBC of 'pressure'
Prediction markets currently think there is a less than 50% chance the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz ends by June 30th - Polymarket
Where does the news lean?
4YES30NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.