Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$60.7Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
10 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Bookmakers have raised the estimated probability of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine to 100% today, for the periods before the end of May, June, and by the end of 2026.
NONews98%match0¢
URGENT: Russia and the US negotiated a ceasefire with Ukraine for two days.
"We can do whatever we want in Russia" – Ukraine is now going on the offensive.
YESCGTN America99%match26¢+285%
Zelenskyy says U.S. gave Ukraine and Russia a June deadline to reach agreement to end the nearly four-year war
YESAl Jazeera English99%match26¢+285%
The US has given Ukraine and Russia a June deadline to reach an agreement to end the nearly four-year war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said
YESFirst Squawk98%match26¢+285%
PRESIDENT VOLODYMYR ZELENSKIY SAYS THE US IS PROPOSING TO FINISH ALL NECESSARY NEGOTIATIONS AND HAVE ALL NEEDED DOCUMENTS SIGNED TO END RUSSIA’S INVASION OF UKRAINE IN JUNE
YESFirst Squawk98%match26¢+285%
ZELENSKIY: US LOOKS FOR DEAL ENDING RUSSIA'S WAR BY JUNE
YESThe Associated Press99%match26¢+285%
U.S. has given Ukraine and Russia a June deadline to reach an agreement to end the nearly four-year war, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy says.
YESBloomberg98%match26¢+285%
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy says the US is proposing to finish all necessary negotiations and have all needed documents signed to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in June
YESAl Jazeera English98%match24¢+317%
Ukraine says first day of peace talks with Russia ‘productive’
Where does the news lean?
11YES4NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.