Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$8.2Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
29 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
YESAl Jazeera Breaking News98%match80¢+25%
BREAKING: Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei killed, Reuters and Israeli media report citing unnamed senior Israeli officials LIVE updates:
YESPhilip Melanchthon Wegmann99%match80¢+25%
RT @BarakRavid: Israeli ambassador to Washington Yechiel Leiter told U.S. officials that Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei has been kil…
YESOSINTdefender98%match80¢+25%
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s compound after being targeted earlier today by the Israeli Air Force, with it now confirmed that Khamenei was killed in the strike on his home in Tehran. [Quoting @sentdefender]
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YESAxios99%match80¢+25%
BREAKING: ISRAEL SAYS IRAN SUPREME LEADER KHAMENEI IS DEAD
YESHuffPost Politics98%match80¢+25%
A senior Israeli official told Reuters that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in Israeli and U.S. strikes.
YESVisegrád 2498%match80¢+25%
BREAKING: Senior Israeli official to Reuters: “Khamenei is dead, his body has been found”
YESOSINTdefender98%match80¢+25%
Reuters and Axios are now also reporting that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been eliminated by an Israeli strike this morning on Tehran.
YESGlobe Eye News98%match80¢+25%
BREAKING: Iran Supreme Leader Khamenei has been killed and his body recovered Israeli media reports.
YESThe Spectator Index98%match80¢+25%
BREAKING: Several senior US officials have been updated that Iran's Supreme Leader has been killed
YESThe Spectator Index98%match80¢+25%
BREAKING: Reuters now also reporting that a Senior Israeli official has told it Khamenei is dead and his body has been found
YESOSINTdefender98%match80¢+25%
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli airstrike this morning on Iran, with his body being found recently among the rubble, Israeli officials tell The Times of Israel.
YESFaytuks News99%match80¢+25%
BREAKING: Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been killed and his body has been retrieved - Kann News
YESThe Spectator Index98%match80¢+25%
BREAKING: Body of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been recovered after his killing, according to Israeli media.
YESThe Spectator Index98%match80¢+25%
BREAKING: Israeli officials say Iran's Supreme Leader has been eliminated, according to Israeli media.
YESCGTN Europe98%match80¢+25%
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Iran this morning, an Israeli official says - reports
YESdb98%match80¢+25%
Israel's N12 is reporting Iran's supreme leader Khamenei was killed in strikes
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match80¢+25%
BREAKING:Ali Khameneis body has been found-N12
YESBBC Breaking News98%match80¢+25%
[Replying to @BBCBreaking] Israeli PM Netanyahu says there are growing signs Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei is "gone" - follow updates >
YESFaytuks News98%match78¢+28%
BREAKING: There are many signs that Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei has been eliminated, Netanyahu says
YESThe Spectator Index98%match78¢+28%
BREAKING: 30 missiles were dropped on the Iranian Supreme Leader's compound and Khamenei is 'almost certainly' dead, according to Israel's Channel 12.
NOGlobe Eye News98%match22¢-100%
BREAKING: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is alive and in command, Iranian state media confirms.
YESThe Spectator Index98%match82¢+22%
BREAKING: Israeli media reports that assessments are continuing to grow that Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was likely killed
YESzerohedge98%match81¢+23%
Meanwhile, odds Khamenei sticks around drop to 20% [Quoting @zerohedge]
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YESzerohedge98%match84¢+19%
RT @FaytuksNetwork: BREAKING: Israel assesses the assassination was successful; the likelihood that Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei sur…
YESPolymarket99%match84¢+19%
BREAKING: Iran’s Supreme Leader now projected to lose power by next month. >70% chance.
YESGlobe Eye News98%match64¢+56%
BREAKING: Israel has assessed that Ayatollah Khamenei was killed, Channel 12 reports.
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match64¢+56%
BREAKING: The Likelihood Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei survived the Israeli strike is slim to none-N12
YESFirst Squawk99%match63¢+59%
Iran’s Supreme Leader projected to lose power this year. >70% chance.@Polymarket
YESPolymarket99%match63¢+59%
BREAKING: Iran’s Supreme Leader projected to lose power this year. >70% chance.
Where does the news lean?
83YES26NO13neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed from power for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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