Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meetingSeptember 30

OpenVol$19KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 87% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES87¢
NO13¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

YESIranian Media93%match80¢+9%
US: Lebanon-Israel talks to resume Spoken of the US State Department: Talks between Lebanon and the Israeli regime will resume in Rome, the capital of Italy, in September. @IRIBNEWS_COM
YESIran Semi-Official Tasnim93%match81¢+7%
US: Lebanon-Israel talks to resume Spoken of the US State Department: Talks between Lebanon and the Israeli regime will resume in Rome, the capital of Italy, in September. @TasnimNews
YESiranintlbrk94%match79¢+10%
A US State Department spokesperson told the Qatari newspaper Al Arabi Al-Jadeed that the political process of talks between Lebanon and Israel will resume in Rome in September.
YESalaraby.co.uk92%match80¢+9%
A US State Department spokesperson told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed: The political track of the Lebanon-Israel negotiations in Rome will resume in September.
YESLebanese broadcaster Al-Jadeed92%match80¢+9%
Ministerial sources told Al-Jadeed: The September meeting is based on a Jordanian-French initiative that has been under development, and invitations are currently being arranged and the level of representation determined. @rifakil
NOAsharq92%match20¢-35%
Lebanese media, citing military sources: No negotiations scheduled between Lebanese and Israeli military delegations in September.

Where does the news lean?

8YES1NO0neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.

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