Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meetingSeptember 13
ResolvedOutcome: No$25Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Diplomatic sources told Al-Jadeed that the negotiations, initially scheduled for mid-September, are likely to be postponed to the last 10 days of the month, though this is not certain. The meeting will be at the "expert" level and will not affect the field or political situation. @rifakil
Lebanese sources tell the Lebanese newspaper Al-Diyar that the date for the third round of negotiations, which was supposed to take place in Rome in early September, has not yet been set, and the discussion will be moved to the second half of the month, in light of the failure of the American mediator so far to achieve a significant breakthrough. The Lebanese source expressed concern that Israel will take advantage of the phase before the Israeli elections to impose new facts on the ground and that the Ali al-Tahrir ridge will become an explosion point that will destroy not only the third round of negotiations in Rome but all the calm experienced by the Lebanese front.
A US State Department spokesperson confirms the resumption of direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel in Rome in early September, and accuses Hezbollah of attempting to obstruct the process.
Where does the news lean?
1YES3NO6neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
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