Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting
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Market pricing makes September 30 the favorite at 87% across 6 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
12 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
US: Lebanon-Israel talks to resume Spoken of the US State Department: Talks between Lebanon and the Israeli regime will resume in Rome, the capital of Italy, in September. @IRIBNEWS_COM
US: Lebanon-Israel talks to resume Spoken of the US State Department: Talks between Lebanon and the Israeli regime will resume in Rome, the capital of Italy, in September.
@TasnimNews
US: Lebanon-Israel talks to resume Spoken of the US State Department: Talks between Lebanon and the Israeli regime will resume in Rome, the capital of Italy, in September.
@TasnimNews
A US State Department spokesperson told the Qatari newspaper Al Arabi Al-Jadeed that the political process of talks between Lebanon and Israel will resume in Rome in September.
American source tells Qatari newspaper: "Negotiations between Israel and Lebanon in Rome will resume in September"
A US State Department spokesperson told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed: The political track of the Lebanon-Israel negotiations in Rome will resume in September.
A US State Department spokesperson told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed: The political track of the Lebanon-Israel negotiations in Rome will resume in September.
A US State Department spokesperson told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed: The political track of the Lebanon-Israel negotiations in Rome will resume in September.
Ministerial sources told Al-Jadeed: The September meeting is based on a Jordanian-French initiative that has been under development, and invitations are currently being arranged and the level of representation determined.
@rifakil
Diplomatic sources told Al-Jadeed: The September meeting is preparatory, but the level of representation and the identities of the participating countries are still unknown. @rifakil
Informed sources told MTV: Lebanon is not considering withdrawing from negotiations with Israel, and the date of September 1st for completing the negotiations in Rome is still valid as a date in itself, but it has not yet been officially determined, and "Berri is no stranger to Rome."
Lebanese media, citing military sources: No negotiations scheduled between Lebanese and Israeli military delegations in September.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.