Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$833Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
21 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
YESAl Jazeera Breaking News98%match75¢+33%
BREAKING: Israel declares state of emergency amid Iran strikes LIVE updates:
YESCNBC99%match75¢+33%
Israel says it has attacked Iran, declares state of emergency
YESCNN Breaking News98%match75¢+33%
Israel launches what it calls a "preemptive strike" against Iran, according to defense minister, as a state of emergency is declared across country.
YESFirst Squawk98%match75¢+33%
Israel launched a "preemptive" strike against Iran on Saturday morning "to remove threats to Israel," the Israeli Defense Ministry said in a statement. Sirens were sounded across Israel to warn the public to prepare for the possibility of an Iranian missile attack on Israel.
YESAl Jazeera English98%match75¢+33%
LIVE: Israel launches attacks on Iran, multiple explosions heard in Tehran
YESBNO News98%match75¢+33%
BREAKING: Israel launches "pre-emptive strike" on Iran, defense minister says; explosions in Tehran
YESFirst Squawk99%match75¢+33%
Israel bombs dozens of targets in Iran
YESFirst Squawk98%match75¢+33%
Israel declares state of emergency throughout the country as strikes begin on Iran
YESFirst Squawk98%match75¢+33%
Israel says it has launched an attack against Iran, as explosions reported in Tehran
YESThe New York Times98%match75¢+33%
Breaking News: Israel said it launched a strike against Iran, and residents reported explosions in Tehran.
YESFirst Squawk99%match75¢+33%
Breaking news: Israel strikes Iran
YESAcyn98%match75¢+33%
CNN: Breaking news… Israel has launched what it calls a preemptive strike on Iran
YESThe Spectator Index98%match75¢+33%
BREAKING: Israel declares state of emergency throughout the country as strikes begin on Iran
YESThe Spectator Index99%match75¢+33%
BREAKING: Israel bombs dozens of targets in Iran
YESFirst Squawk98%match75¢+33%
Israel said it launched a preventative attack on Iran as explosions were reported in Tehran
YESGlobe Eye News98%match75¢+33%
BREAKING: Israel is currently striking Iran’s capital, Tehran.
YESBloomberg98%match75¢+33%
Israel said it launched a preventative attack on Iran as explosions were reported in Tehran
YESSolid Intel 📡98%match75¢+33%
INTEL: ISRAEL LAUNCHED PREVENTIVE ATTACK ON IRAN
YESOSINTdefender98%match75¢+33%
Israel is confirmed to have launched “preemptive strikes” this morning against Iran.
YESGlobe Eye News99%match75¢+33%
BREAKING: Israel officially launches attack on Iran.
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match64¢+56%
The reports suggesting the US does not have enough munitions for a protracted campaign against Iran in theatre fundamentally ignore that Israel will probably in the event of strikes join in, they showed last June to be able to last more than 12 day of constant strikes on Iran.
Where does the news lean?
24YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.