Iran charges Hormuz feesSeptember 30
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Odds now
The market prices a 13% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES13¢
NO87¢
as of
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
The state-run Mehr news agency reported that since August 21, the Islamic Republic's armed forces have prevented 30 vessels from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and during this period, limited vessel traffic has only been allowed via routes approved by the Islamic Republic, with coordination and payment of tolls.
Iranian escalation in the Strait of Hormuz: Tehran officially announces fees on ships transiting the strait.
The Israeli website Ynet wrote in an analytical note that the Islamic Republic's plan to charge commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz is more a reflection of the increasing financial pressure on the government due to sanctions, war and disruptions in trade than a sign of power. According to the plan, which has not yet been approved by the Islamic Republic's parliament, Tehran could charge ships from authorized countries for services such as navigation, safety, insurance and fueling. The amount of these fees and the mechanism for their implementation have not yet been announced. The note says that the collapse of the rial, inflation, the difficulty of selling oil and pressure on financial networks linked to the Revolutionary Guard Corps have limited the Islamic Republic's sources of income, and Tehran is seeking to earn money from one of the world's most important energy transport routes. The author also argued that implementing such a plan could increase shipping and insurance costs and put further strain on Tehran's relations with the Persian Gulf countries and major oil importers in Asia. According to Ynet, the effort to collect these costs shows that the Islamic Republic's economic options have become more limited.
New Iranian decision regarding the Strait of Hormuz: Fees on ships and penalties for violators 3%D9%81%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B6%D9%8A%D9%82-%D9%87%D8%B1%D9%85%D8%B2-%D9%85%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%B5%D9%8A%D9%84
These fees will be collected from ships of countries authorized to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, in rials or any other currency desired by Iran.
Spokesperson for the National Security Commission of the Parliament: Article 3 of the Strategic Action Plan for the Strait of Hormuz was approved. According to this article, a fee will be charged for the services we provide. These fees will be collected from ships of countries authorized to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, in rials or any other currency desired by the Islamic Republic.
National Security Commission Spokesperson: Charging service fees from ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz approved @IRIBNEWS_COM
Iranian Foreign Ministry: We are not discussing imposing transit fees on the Strait of Hormuz at this stage. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ismail Baghaei: We are not discussing imposing fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz at this stage. We have agreed with Oman on a transit map for the Strait of Hormuz and are discussing some technical points with them. The issue of mine clearance is between us and Oman, as we are two littoral states of the Strait of Hormuz. The negotiations with the Sultanate of Oman aim to determine the navigation route in the Strait of Hormuz. We will implement mechanisms to monitor navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and provide services, and it is natural to collect fees. The route we are discussing with Oman in the Strait of Hormuz is temporary and will replace the two southern routes. The northern route The southern route in the Strait of Hormuz is illegal, unsafe, and violates the Memorandum of Understanding #From_the_Event
Where does the news lean?
44YES4NO7neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans YES at 53% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.”
A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify.
A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify).
Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria:
1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented.
2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun.
Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.
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