Iran charges Hormuz feesOctober 31

OpenVol$407KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 23% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES23¢
NO77¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

18 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

YESiranintlbrk92%match23¢
The state-run Mehr news agency reported that since August 21, the Islamic Republic's armed forces have prevented 30 vessels from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and during this period, limited vessel traffic has only been allowed via routes approved by the Islamic Republic, with coordination and payment of tolls.
YESalarabytv97%match36¢-36%
Iranian escalation in the Strait of Hormuz: Tehran officially announces fees on ships transiting the strait.
YESalarabytv95%match33¢-30%
New Iranian decision regarding the Strait of Hormuz: Fees on ships and penalties for violators 3%D9%81%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B6%D9%8A%D9%82-%D9%87%D8%B1%D9%85%D8%B2-%D9%85%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%B5%D9%8A%D9%84
YESIranian Media93%match27¢-15%
Ships in the Strait of Hormuz will be subject to service fees The spokesperson for the National Security Commission of the Parliament announced the approval of a plan to charge ships for navigation, safety, environmental and fueling services in the Strait of Hormuz. Read the full text in the link below... @Nournews_ir
YESfarsnews_agency97%match27¢-15%
These fees will be collected from ships of countries authorized to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, in rials or any other currency desired by Iran.
YESfarsnews_agency95%match27¢-15%
Approval of charging service fees from ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz in the National Security Commission National Security Commission Spokesperson: According to Article 3 of the Strategic Action Plan to Ensure Security and Progress in the Strait of Hormuz, fees will be charged for services including navigation, environmental, fueling under special conditions, insurance, and safety.
YESiranintlbrk96%match29¢-21%
Spokesperson for the National Security Commission of the Parliament: Article 3 of the Strategic Action Plan for the Strait of Hormuz was approved. According to this article, a fee will be charged for the services we provide. These fees will be collected from ships of countries authorized to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, in rials or any other currency desired by the Islamic Republic.
YESIranian Media92%match31¢-26%
National Security Commission Spokesperson: Charging service fees from ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz approved @IRIBNEWS_COM
NOabcnews.com91%match58¢+33%
Live: US official says Iran-Oman deal to reopen Strait will not have 'tolls or charges'
YESAsharq93%match38¢-39%
Fars News Agency: Ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz will be required to pay for insurance, refueling, and environmental fees.
YESalmayadeenlive93%match38¢-39%
Iran: Fars News Agency, quoting an informed source: Ships in the Strait of Hormuz are required to pay for insurance, refueling, environmental fees, and the like.
NOchinesewsj94%match65¢+18%
According to sources, Iran and Oman were finalizing a draft agreement on Wednesday aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Under the draft, Tehran would have the right to monitor vessels entering the Persian Gulf but would be prohibited from charging tolls or service fees.
NOalarabiya92%match65¢+18%
Following the draft agreement between Oman and Iran, navigation in the Strait of Hormuz will be regulated for 60 days without fees, and mine removal will begin within 30 days.
NOJ.Post / i24 Reporter92%match62¢+24%
What does the agreement being formed between Iran and Oman include, according to 2 diplomats? • This is a temporary agreement for 60 days • Entry into the Straits: via the Iranian side • Exit from the Straits: via the Omani side, but in coordination with Iran • During the 60 days: Mines will be cleared from the middle part of the Straits (most mines on the Omani side). • Regarding fees: There will certainly not be mandatory fees on ships as Iran wanted. The question is whether there will be a possibility of "insurance, environmental quality fees" that ships can pay *voluntarily* (but it is clear that Iran will make it very clear to everyone that it is very worthwhile for them to pay). • During the 60 days - we return to the discussion about the nuclear program and a permanent solution to the Straits. • The bottom line: If the agreement is accepted - Iran will have much greater control over the Straits than before the war
NOiranintlbrk94%match62¢+24%
CBS News reported, citing informed sources, that the Iranian and Omani plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz does not foresee collecting tolls or service fees from passing ships.
NOUkrainian Media92%match51¢+51%
The US plans to announce an agreement with Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz today, - Axios According to sources, a temporary agreement for 60 days will be concluded between Iran and Oman, but it will satisfy some of Tehran's demands. The document contains the following points: all inflow of vessels through the strait into the Persian Gulf will be carried out via the northern route through Iranian waters; all outbound traffic through the strait and into the Arabian Sea will be carried out via the southern route through Omani waters in coordination with Iran; during a 60-day period, no tolls or other fees will be charged; the parties undertake to begin demining the maritime mine separation zone of the strait within 30 days; after the separation zone is cleared, it will be used for entry and exit traffic in accordance with the terms of a permanent agreement to be agreed between Oman and Iran. Read only the gist from RBC-Ukraine on Google.
NOiranintlbrk93%match44¢+75%
A US official told Reuters: The agreement under consideration regarding the Strait of Hormuz and the post-Iran war is focused solely on coordinating passage through this waterway and will not include any tolls or fees for ships to pass through.
NOalarabytv92%match44¢+75%
#Breaking | Reuters, quoting a US official: Iran is exaggerating its demands regarding the Strait of Hormuz, demands rejected by Oman, Washington, and the international community. The agreement currently under discussion concerning the Strait of Hormuz pertains to coordination and does not involve transit fees or other charges.

Where does the news lean?

88YES26NO16neutraltrailing 24h

Signal flow leans YES at 52% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.

Past moves on this market

Material odds moves (8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.

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