Greta Thunberg arrestedDecember 31
Open$512as of
Odds now
The market prices a 60% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES60¢
NO41¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Greta Thunberg was arrested by German police for her solidarity with the people of Gaza! Swedish political activist Greta Thunberg was arrested by Berlin police during a protest sit-in in front of the Rheinmetall office in Berlin, which was held in solidarity with Gaza. Get the latest news:
Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv
Where does the news lean?
1YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greta Thunberg is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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See all outcomes for Greta Thunberg arrested — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.