Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?
Open$31Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 91% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES91¢
NO9¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
A Just Russia party has overcome the 5% barrier to enter the State Duma on its party list.
"A Just Russia" clears the 5% threshold after processing 96.95% of the votes. Thus, the party enters the State Duma via party lists.
A Just Russia party has cleared the 5% threshold in the State Duma elections.
YESПосле обработки 96,91% протоколов «Справедливая Россия» набирает необходимые для прохождения в Госдуму по партийным спискам 5% голосов, сообщили в ЦИК.94%match97¢-6%
A Just Russia party overcame the five percent barrier in the elections.
A Just Russia has cleared the 5% threshold to enter the State Duma after 96.91% of the ballots have been processed, the Central Election Commission reports. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
With 96.91% of the ballots processed, the A Just Russia party has cleared the 5% threshold required to enter the State Duma on party lists, the Central Election Commission reported. RBC is always at hand – download the app for iOS and Android
RBC channel on "Max"
Where does the news lean?
8YES1NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans YES at 71% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.